The View From The Roof: Week 5

Last week: 16-4
Season: 49-14

Chalk up another disappointing four loss week.  Joe Paterno and his Nittany Lions were taken to school by Michigan as the Wolverines proved they are back and Penn State proved they might have been just a little overhyped.  The best game of the week had to be Georgia/Alabama as John Parker Wilson led the Tide back from a fourth quarter deficit for the second straight week only to see it come crashing down in overtime as Matt Stafford got it done for the Bulldogs.

The most surprising game by far had to be the second biggest upset of the college football season (#1 being App St. over Michigan) as the Syracuse Orange looked like the Orangemen of the 90s knocking off Louisville.  You know it’s bad when your quarterback throws for 555 yards like Brian Brohm did and you still lose.  The Cardinals might be the second worst defense in the country, of course behind the Irish who fell to 0-4 for the first time in school history.  I guess it’s a given now that they will be 0-8 heading into their battle with Navy.  Onto the week at hand, though, which features two exceptional matchups that actually aren’t in the SEC (what??!!).

#5 West Virginia Mountaineers at #18 South Florida Bulls
In what is being hyped as the biggest game in South Florida’s short ,11-year history, Pat White and Steve Slaton lead the Mountaineers into Raymond James Stadium seeking revenge for the 24-19 defeat they suffered last season in Morgantown at the hands of the Bulls.  In that game, South Florida held White and Slaton to a combined 60 yards rushing; something the Bulls will need to do again if they want their second straight win over the Mountaineers.  USF QB Matt Grothe will need to lead the way on offense passing the ball, but more importantly running the ball to pull off the upset.  Senior LB Ben Moffit and sensational sophomore DE George Selvie who leads the NCAA with 8.5 sacks will need to step up and make plays if they hope to contain the explosive Mountaineer offense.  West Virginia’s offense averages 357 rushing yards per game and averages another 168 yards through the air.
Prediction:
Everyone knows about White and Slaton but I think the key to this game will be the two little guys on the Mountaineer offense – WR Darius Reynaud and RB Noel Devine.  Reynaud is White’s go-to-guy in the air catching 23 balls for 335 yards this year while Devine has excelled spelling Slaton in the backfield, averaging 11.1 yards per carry.  I think USF will be able to slow down the legs of White and Slaton, but add in Reynaud and Devine and that is just too many weapons for the Bulls to stop over 60 minutes of football.
West Virginia 34
South Florida 17

#6 California Bears at #11 Oregon Ducks
Offense will be the name of the game in this matchup as QB Dennis Dixon leads his spread offense against the more balanced attack of the Bears.  Dixon who was benched last year for his inaccuracy and propensity for throwing interceptions has accumulated a completion percentage of almost 70 this season and has yet to throw an interception while passing for 11 touchdowns and running for four more.  Cal enjoys having the most experienced, if not the best receiving corps in the country so QB Nate Longshore has plenty of outlets to get rid of the ball.  A big factor n this game might be how often Oregon has to punt and if they decide to kick to DeSean Jackson, the “most explosive player in Division 1” according to Ducks coach Mike Bellotti.  I would expect the Ducks to kick away from him at all costs which could give the Bears some great field position.
Prediction:
Both teams will put up points without question, but I think the Ducks ride the
emotion of the home crowd and I look for running backs Jonathan Stewart and
Jeremiah Johnson to have huge games in an Oregon win.
Oregon 45
Cal 31

Michigan State Spartans at #9 Wisconsin Badgers
The Spartans are 4-0 under new coach Mark Dantonio but they will face their biggest test by far when they head into Camp Randall Stadium to take on a Badger team that looks to have finally found its defensive rhythm.  Both teams are about as even as you can get when it comes to the run game.  Each team exhibits their own versions of thunder and lightning on offense in Michigan State’s Jehuu Caulcrick and Javon Ringer and Wisconsin’s P.J. Hill and Lance Smith-Williams, while defensively, both teams only give up around 95 yards a game rushing.  What does that mean?  Quarterback play will decide this one.
Prediction:
Badgers QB Tyler Donovan possesses the two most dangerous outside weapons in wide receiver Luke Swan and tight end Travis Beckum so I expect Beckum to work the middle of the field all day and then when the Spartans defense collapses on him, Donovan will look to Swan for the big play downfield.
Wisconsin 27
Michigan State 13

#13 Clemson Tigers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
QB Cullen Harper has stepped right in for Clemson and added a much needed passing game to go along with their magnificent running tandem of James Davis and C.J. Spiller.  Georgia Tech comes off back-to-back losses to Boston College and Virginia putting them at 0-2 in the ACC.  Their new QB Taylor Bennett hasn’t exactly lit it up for the Jackets who are only averaging 166 passing yards per game.  Running back Tashard Choice is once again questionable with a hamstring injury so it looks like freshman Jonathan Dwyer will be relied upon to carry the load.
Prediction:
Everything points to a Tigers win in this one with the injuries and quarterback play, but this will be the first true road test for Clemson and first year starter Harper.  The Jackets still have a pretty solid defense and with the home crowd behind them, I look for GT to pull off the upset behind some big plays from Bennett and the passing game.
Georgia Tech 24
Clemson 7

North Carolina Tar Heels at #17 Virginia Tech Hokies
The Hokies have held their last seven opponents at Lane Stadium to seven points or less, so this one could be fun since the Tar Heels boast a pretty good offense.  Freshman T.J. Yates is second in the ACC with 246.5 passing yards per game and has thrown nine touchdowns thus far.  A big problem, though, as Yates showed last week with four is he is prone to the interception as he also leads the ACC in that category with seven.  The Tar Heels have no running game, so I expect the Hokies to go after Yates early and often as Bud Foster loves to do when facing young QBs.  For the Hokies, this is the week Branden Ore gets his first 100-yard rushing game as the Tar Heel defense is giving up over 150 yards a game on the ground.
Prediction:
Virginia Tech will pressure Yates every chance they can get forcing him into some mistakes which QB Tyrod Taylor, Ore and the rest of the offense will capitalize on.
Virginia Tech 34
North Carolina 10

#22 Alabama at Florida State
Florida State has struggled in their first three games still unable to establish an identity on offense.  Antone Smith is an explosive back but offensive line troubles continue to plague the Seminoles so the holes just don’t seem to be there.  QB Drew Weatherford has the weapons to provide a solid passing game, but he and the receivers just don’t seem to be on the same page.  The Tide comes off an emotional home loss in overtime so it’ll be interesting to see how Saban gets his boys ready for this showdown.  John Parker Wilson has looked good at times but his inconsistency cost Alabama the game last week. 
Prediction:
I’m not sold on the Seminoles who have put up three mediocre efforts thus far, two against sub-par teams.  I think the Tide will look to run the ball with Terry Grant and Glen Coffee and the defense will get it done against an underachieving Seminoles offense.
Alabama 24
Florida State 10

Other Top 25 Action:

#1 USC Trojans over Washington Huskies
John David Booty proved the Trojans can still pass the ball with 279 yards and four touchdowns last week.  The Trojans should unleash their entire offensive arsenal in this one as the Huskies have given up 200 yards rushing and 200 yards passing to each of their last two opponents.

#2 LSU Tigers over Tulane Green Wave
Look for the Tigers to get their third shutout of the season.  I just want to see LSU’s Trindon Holliday get some touches because he might be the fastest player in the country.

#3 Oklahoma Sooners over Colorado Buffaloes
The Sooners are averaging 61.5 points per game and with the number of weapons they possess on offense, expect more of the same against the Buffs.  QB Sam Bradford would get my vote if the Heisman Trophy was awarded today.

#4 Florida Gators over Auburn Tigers
Auburn might be the most disappointing team this year along with Louisville.  Add in the fact that the Tigers are the only blemish on the Gators 2006 season, and this could get ugly.  Tim Tebow will run; Tim Tebow will throw; Tim Tebow and the Gators will win easily.

#7 Texas Longhorns over Kansas State Wildcats
Colt McCoy looks to be back to his freshman form, and with Jamaal Charles running the ball behind a great offensive line, the Longhorns are ready to challenge Oklahoma.

#8 Ohio State Buckeyes over Minnesota Golden Gophers
The Gophers have lost to powerhouses Bowling Green and Florida Atlantic.  Ohio State’s defense has been one of the best in the nation giving up about seven points per game, and Todd Boeckman leads a young offense that is starting to find its rhythm.

#10 Rutgers Scarlet Knights over Maryland Terrapins
Maryland has given up 531 yards on the ground in their last two games, both losses.  That doesn’t bode well for the Terrapins who go up against one of the best runners in the country in Ray Rice.  I think Rutgers will come out a little sloppy against their first real opponent, but the Knights will get it going in the second half and take over from there.

#12 Boston College Eagles over Massachusetts Minutemen
After starting the season with three straight conference wins, Matt Ryan and the other starters should get plenty of rest in this one.

#14 Kentucky Wildcats over Florida Atlantic Owls
Andre’ Woodson and the powerful Wildcats offense will get one more crack at racking up some stats before three straight SEC games against South Carolina, LSU and Florida which will prove whether this early season success was just a fluke.

#15 Georgia Bulldogs over Mississippi Rebels
I love Georgia’s Knowshon Moreno because he has that attitude that I’m not going around you; I’m going straight through you.  I know it’s premature, but he reminds me of a smaller version of Herschel Walker.  In SEC rush defense, Ole Miss ranks 10th; expect a big game from Moreno and Thomas Brown.

#16 South Carolina Gamecocks over Mississippi State Bulldogs
With both teams starting inexperienced quarterbacks, expect this to be a defensive battle with the running backs being the deciding factor.  Both teams have a power back in the Gamecocks Mike Davis and the Bulldogs Anthony Dixon, but I think the other Gamecock running back, Cory Boyd, will be the deciding factor.  Boyd will not only run the ball, but he will be that safety valve out of the backfield when freshman QB Chris Smelley gets pressured.

#19 Hawaii Warriors over Idaho Vandals
After sitting out last week’s game with a sprained ankle, Colt Brennan should be back on the field and lighting up the scoreboard against a Vandals defense that is giving up almost 35 points a game.

#21 Penn State Nittany Lions over Illinois Fighting Illini
Penn State allowed 153 yards to Mike Hart in their loss to Michigan and it doesn’t get any easier as the Lions travel to Champagne to face off against another outstanding runner in Rashard Mendenhall.  Anthony Morelli will need to quickly get over his poor performance last week or else there might be some rumblings in Happy Valley about a QB change.  With all of that being said, I think the Lions defense will show up for this game ready to stop the run and Morelli will shape back into form and get the ball to all of his playmaking wide receivers.

#23 Arizona State Sun Devils over Stanford Cardinal
Dennis Erickson is back to his winning ways in the Pac-10 behind quarterback Rudy Carpenter who has put up outstanding numbers early on.  Stanford put up a fight last week against Oregon, but crumbled in the second half; something I see happening this week as well.

#24 Cincinnati Bearcats over San Diego State Aztecs
The Bearcats are in the Top 25 for the first time in 31 years thanks in large part to their two QBs, Wake Forest transfer Ben Mauk and senior Dustin Grutza, as well as an opportunistic defense that leads the nation in turnover margin and takeaways.  The Bearcats will try to use this game as a springboard for their next two opponents, Rutgers and Louisville.

#25 Nebraska Cornhuskers over Iowa State Cyclones
The Cornhuskers rebounded, sort of, from the USC debacle with a hard-fought win over an underrated Ball State.  With that being said, Iowa State has lost to FCS (former 1-AA) Northern Iowa as well as Kent State.  Nebraska’s Marlon Lucky should get the ball 30 times in this one and the Huskers should just wear down the Cyclone defense and try to keep the duo of QB Bret Meyer and WR Todd Blythe off the field.