The View From The Roof: Week 8

Last Week: 15-4
Season: 88-31

I don’t even know what to say anymore.  Every college football season has its shockers, but this season has to go down in history as one of the craziest ever.  For the first time in 11 years, both the No. 1 (LSU) and No. 2 (Cal) teams lost on the same weekend elevating Ohio State and South Florida to the top two spots.  Three of the six remaining unbeaten teams are in action this week and all three face tough opponents.  There are three other games on the schedule as well between ranked opponents, so this should be just another intriguing week.

Michigan State Spartans vs. #1 Ohio State Buckeyes
Being ranked in the Top 5 has been a death sentence for most teams this season and with a tough stretch of games coming up, Ohio State’s reign might be short-lived as well.  James Laurinaitis and the Buckeyes defense will be looked upon to make sure that doesn’t happen this week, though, as new head coach Mark Dantonio brings his Spartans to Columbus.  The Buckeyes defense ranks first in the nation in points against (6.6) and total yards (211.7), but they will face their toughest challenge yet in trying to control the Michigan State ground game.  The one-two punch of veterans Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick have helped the Spartans average 243 rushing yards a game, ninth in the country.
Prediction:
Ohio State will lose this year, but it won’t be this week.  QB Todd Boeckman and tailback Chris Wells will put up points early for the Buckeyes forcing the Spartans to abandon their ground game. 
Ohio State 38
Michigan State 13

#17 Auburn Tigers vs. #4 LSU Tigers
I for one didn’t think LSU would lose this season, but of course that means they did and now they have to regroup against the hottest team in the SEC.  Auburn comes off an emotional win over Arkansas, their fourth straight victory, and now sit atop the SEC West tied with LSU and Alabama.  No pressure then except that basically the winner of this matchup will win the SEC West.  Both teams rank in the top 10 in the country in defense, so don’t expect a lot of points.  LSU QB Matt Flynn has struggled with consistency lately while his counterpart, Auburn’s Brandon Cox, has been near flawless for the last four weeks.  Both teams focal point on offense is the run and each have a plethora of backs that can produce.
Prediction:
LSU coach Les Miles says receiver Earley Doucet should be back in the lineup this week after basically missing the last four games, so that will be a big boost to an LSU passing game that has been sub-par of late.  The biggest factor, though, in this one will be the home crowd.  I said it before, and I’ll say it again.  No one beats LSU in Baton Rouge at night.
LSU 20
Auburn 16

#15 Florida Gators vs. #7 Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky’s prize for beating the No. 1 team in the country is a date with a Florida team that has won the last 20 meetings between the schools.  Kentucky QB Andre’ Woodson will once again need to be spectacular as he matches up with probably the most feared quarterback in the country in Florida’s Tim Tebow.  The bye week came just at the right time for the Gators and in particular Tebow who had been physically beaten up in the previous two games, both losses.  The Wildcat offense has used a great balance of the pass and run to score at least 40 points in six of their seven games, all wins, so a young Gators defense will be tested in every phase. 
Prediction:
Florida lost their two games by a combined seven points to defenses that both rank in the top 10 nationally.  Kentucky’s defense sits right around 100 nationally and is giving up almost 200 yards a game on the ground.  Tim Tebow will run and run and run and I don’t think Kentucky will be able stop it.
Florida 44
Kentucky 27

#24 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. #16 Missouri Tigers
If you love defense this isn’t the game for you.  Texas Tech averages 50 points a game and Missouri averages 40, so expect some scoring in this one.  Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell has been out of this world this season throwing for 450 yards a game and 31 total touchdowns compared to only three interceptions, but still hasn’t received much Heisman talk.  That can all change, though, if Harrell and his Red Raiders can pull off the upset in Columbia.  A big part of the Red Raiders offensive success has been freshman Michael Crabtree who has accumulated a modest 78 receptions for 1,244 yards and 17 touchdowns putting him on pace to break almost every single NCAA receiving record.  Missouri has their own stud QB in Chase Daniel who ranks fifth in the country with 345 passing yards a game and who also can threaten a defense with his legs; something Harrell lacks. 
Prediction:
Both teams will score, that’s a given, but I think the return of Missouri’s leading rusher, Tony Temple, will be the deciding factor.  Without his services last week, the Tigers were held to a season-low 57 rushing yards in their loss to Oklahoma.  If their smart, the Tigers will try and control the clock with a balance of run and pass and keep that potent Red Raiders offense on the sidelines for as long as possible.
Missouri 45
Texas Tech 38

#25 Michigan Wolverines vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
The big storyline going into this one is whether Mike Hart will play.  Since getting embarrassed in their first two games, the Wolverines have looked like the team everyone expected rolling off five straight wins behind Hart who has rushed for 100+ yards in all seven games.  Illinois is coming off a tough loss to Iowa in which its talented, but young offensive stars had their worst games of the season.  Because of all the youth, the huge stage and magnitude of this game (primetime on national TV) could be a big factor for the Illini.  Michigan QB Chad Henne and his two favorite receivers, Mario Manningham and Adrian Arrington, have re-emerged as one of the top passing trios in the country making the possible unavailability of Hart easier to swallow.
Prediction:
Illinois will be the third Michigan opponent this season that runs the spread offense with a mobile quarterback.  The Wolverines lost the first two contests and I still don’t think their defense can stop it.  People will leave this game saying Rashard Mendenhall is the next great running back in college football.
Illinois 31
Michigan 23
 
Other Top 25 Action:

#5 Oklahoma Sooners over Iowa State Cyclones
Sam Bradford is right there at the top of my Heisman list coming off another great performance in the win over Missouri.  If the defense can pull it back together, the Sooners are sitting pretty for a potential national championship bid.

#6 South Carolina Gamecocks over Vanderbilt Commodores
The heart-breaking loss to Georgia will be too much for Vanderbilt to rebound from.  The Gamecocks defense has carried them recently, but the offense should get it going again this week.

#9 West Virginia Mountaineers over Mississippi State Bulldogs
The Bulldogs offense has showed signs of life recently, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the high-powered rushing attack of a rested Mountaineers team regardless of whether Pat White plays or not.

#10 Oregon Ducks over Washington Huskies
Two key injuries to Jeremiah Johnson and Cameron Colvin might put a kink in the Ducks offense but the Huskies defense is awful.  Dennis Dixon and Jonathan Stewart should have huge games and as long as the Oregon defense continues its solid play, there will be no worries in Eugene.

#12 Cal Bears over UCLA Bruins
Coming off a disappointing loss, the Bears will be fired up which doesn’t bode well for a UCLA team that just got dominated by Notre Dame and that will probably be starting third string walk-on QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson.

Colorado Buffaloes over #13 Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks offense has put up staggering numbers this season, scoring at least 45 points in five of their six games.  However, the Buffs are a completely different team at home and Coach Dan Hawkins will have his boys primed and ready for a second home upset after shocking then No. 3 Oklahoma three weeks ago.  Kansas isn’t used to such a big stage and I think the inexperience will show in this one, especially if Colorado can get out to an early lead. 

#14 USC Trojans over Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Boy how things have changed since the last time these two played in South Bend, arguably the greatest game in college football history.  This one won’t quite reach that magnitude as I look for Pete Carroll to use this as a statement game to prove his Trojans are still among the elite.  Beware Irish fans.  I will say this, though.  Nothing would make more sense for this season than if Notre Dame pulled off the upset.

Maryland Terrapins over #19 Virginia Cavaliers
I’m convinced the Cavaliers have sold their souls because there is no other explanation for how they have come back from the dead to win their last two games.  On the other hand, Maryland has rebounded from a devastating loss to Wake Forest to win their last two including giving Rutgers their first loss.  The numbers for both UVa and Maryland are pretty similar, so I think the difference in this one will be the atmosphere created in Byrd Stadium with the 8 p.m. kickoff.

#21 Tennessee Volunteers over Alabama Crimson Tide
Tennessee has joined Auburn as the hottest team in the SEC.  Vols QB Erik Ainge and tailback Arian Foster have been the catalysts for an offense that has scored at least 30 points in five of their six games.  Alabama has struggled to win their last two against lesser teams so even the home field advantage won’t be enough to get the W this week.

#22 Texas Longhorns over Baylor Bears
Colt McCoy is back on track and just at the right time as the Bears give up over 250 passing yards a game.

#23 Cincinnati Bearcats over Pittsburgh Panthers
The Bearcats fell from the ranks of the unbeaten with their loss to Louisville, but a return to their winning ways is in store this week against an inexperienced and overmatched Pitt team.