The View From The Roof: Week 9

Last week: 9-7
Season: 97-38

I guess my advice this week should be EXPECT THE OPPOSITE OF WHAT I SAY.  However, I smell a rebound week after my worst performance to date.  With this week’s huge slate of important games, I’ll either crash and burn (again) or come out looking like a genius.
(all rankings are based on the BCS Standings)

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #25 Penn State Nittany Lions
This battle of perennial Big 10 powers will once again be highlighted by great defenses, and in particular, two great middle linebackers in Penn State’s Dan Connor and Ohio State’s James Laurinaitis.  The Buckeyes lead the country in scoring defense, allowing a measly 7.9 points per game, as well as total defense, giving up only 208.5 yards per game.  The Nittany Lions staunch defense leads the countries with 4.4 sacks per game but need to rebound from a poor performance last week in which they gave up 386 yards and 31 points to the spread offense of Indiana.  Both teams look to the run game to establish the pass, so with each facing a strong defense the team that can control the line of scrimmage will win.  With rain expected in the forecast, the quarterbacks, Penn State’s Anthony Morelli and Ohio State’s Todd Boeckman, will both be looked upon to manage the game and not make that crucial turnover; something that has plagued Morelli throughout his career. 
Prediction:   
The last time the Buckeyes traveled to Happy Valley back in 2005, it was the last time Ohio State lost a conference game as well as a regular season game.  The Buckeyes have since won 18 straight Big 10 games and 26 straight regular season games.  While I think Ohio State is more talented, there is something about a night game in Happy Valley that makes the Lions play great.  Throw in the “whiteout” that Penn State has called for from its fans and I see a new No. 1 team come next week.  
Penn State 17
Ohio State 13

#21 California Golden Bears vs. #4 Arizona State Sun Devils
You have to go back to the days of Jake Plummer to remember the last time Arizona State was ranked this high.  Under new Head Coach Dennis Erickson, the Sun Devils have jumped out to a 7-0 record behind a potent offense, unknown defense, but most importantly a weak schedule.  That changes starting this week when they host a talented and angry Cal team that will be looking to end a two-game skid after being as high as No. 2 in the rankings.  Bears QB Nate Longshore returned last week with three touchdowns but also threw three costly interceptions.  While Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter has more touchdowns than Longshore (16-10), he has thrown at least one interception in his last six games; something he won’t be able to do against a Cal offense that can turn that into a quick seven points.   DeSean Jackson and Lavelle Hawkins are big play receivers who have combined for 55 percent of Cal’s receptions as well as eight of the 12 passing touchdowns.  The Sun Devils use a more balanced passing attack as four guys have racked up at least 22 receptions led by Michael Jones who averages 16.5 yards per catch and has five touchdowns on the season.
Prediction:
Arizona State has not seen a more talented or well-coached team this season.  Both teams have big-name quarterbacks, but I think this one comes down to the run game and special teams.  Cal’s Justin Forsett has gone under the radar this season in compiling 811 rushing yards, second in the Pac-10, and 10 rushing touchdowns, first in the Pac-10.  I look for the always dangerous DeSean Jackson to make some huge plays in the return game, and with Forsett leading the way on offense, Cal will knock the Sun Devils from the small list of unbeatens.     
California 31
Arizona State 21

#12 USC Trojans vs. #5 Oregon Ducks
It’s been over five years since the Trojans were underdogs in a Pac-10 game; something I’m sure Pete Carroll will look to as a motivator for his team.  Oregon will have to handle the pressure of being the favorite over a team that has dominated them the last two years by a combined 57 points.  Quarterback play will be a huge factor in this one as the Trojans have chosen to go with Mark Sanchez who will be making only his third career start.  On the other hand, Oregon has Hesiman contender Dennis Dixon who has to be thanking everyone in the world that he chose football over professional baseball.  Dixon has been remarkable this season throwing for over 1,700 yards and rushing for another 400 yards.  The biggest difference this season, though, is his decision-making as the senior has thrown 17 touchdowns to only three interceptions.  The Trojans offense may not have the big flashy names that USC fans are accustomed to, but they still have an abundance of talent and some key veterans.  Senior tight end Fred Davis and senior running back Chauncey Washington both lead the team in receiving and rushing respectively and have given a veteran influence to such a young group of skill players.
Prediction:
All of the so-called experts love to point out that this powerful Oregon offense has not played a team with the caliber of defense that USC brings.  How about the fact that USC hasn’t faced an offense this season half as good as the Ducks?  I like offense and a deafening Autzen Stadium to carry the Ducks to a huge victory.
Oregon 34
USC 26

#10 South Florida Bulls vs. #23 Connecticut Huskies
Connecticut is one bad snap away from being 7-0 on the season, but on the other end, they are also two really bad officiating calls away from being 4-3.  South Florida has to rebound from the No. 2 curse after the Bulls were the third consecutive team ranked second to lose last week.  The Bulls defense had been stellar all season until last week when Ray Rice ran roughshod all over them, giving the Huskies a blueprint for attacking this USF defense.  South Florida will look to get the ball into the hands of their playmakers, particularly Amarri Jackson and Carlton Mitchell, to take advantage of the edge they have in the speed department.
Prediction: 
I love South Florida, but I even knew they were going to lose at Rutgers.  Connecticut, while having a better record than the Knights, is not as talented as them or for that matter, South Florida.  The Bulls defense will get back on track and the poor man’s Tim Tebow, Matt Grothe, should have another solid outing.  Let’s just hope officiating doesn’t decide another UConn game. 
South Florida 27
Connecticut 17

#11 Florida Gators vs. #18 Georgia Bulldogs
You’re not supposed to call it the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party,” but I’m no fool; that’s what it is.  Semantics aside, this game has large implications when it comes to the SEC East as five of the six teams all have two losses with the Gators controlling their own destiny.  You can’t say Florida football without mentioning Tim Tebow who will once again bear the brunt of hits on offense; something that has taken a toll on him this past week as the Heisman hopeful was not to be touched in practice to rest his bruised body.  Tebow will have his hands full against a physical Georgia defense that has only given up more than 17 points twice this season.  On the offensive side, the Bulldogs will need to be better than they have played recently if they want any shot at winning.  QB Matt Stafford and tailback Knowshon Moreno will have to produce early and often to keep up with this potent Gator attack.  
Prediction:
I’ve got a new nickname for this match-up: “The Florida Beat-down of Georgia” since that is what has happened 15 of the last 17 times these schools have played.  Make that 16 of 18 as Tebow and his plethora of offensive weapons will dominate this one from start to finish.
Florida 41
Georgia 20

#7 West Virginia Mountaineers vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
After an early loss to South Florida, West Virginia has quietly snuck their way back into the national title picture.  Rutgers, while out of the national title chase, can still establish themselves as the front-runner for the Big East crown if they can pull off another upset at home.  That’s easier said than done, though, for the Knights who have lost 12 straight meetings between the schools.  As usual, the Mountaineers will rely upon the legs of QB Pat White and running back Steve Slaton who have combined for 1,252 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground.  Rutgers will counter with their own great back in Ray Rice who is one rushing yard shy of his third thousand-yard campaign in as many seasons. 
Prediction: 
Piscataway, N.J. will be rocking again this week, but I think the noon ET start will hurt Rutgers.  As is the case with most Rutgers games, it comes down to how QB Mike Teel manages the game and if he turns the ball over.  He played too well last week, so he’ll turn it over a couple times in this one.  Pat White, Steve Slaton and the Mountaineers offense will get up early on the Knights forcing Mike Teel to beat them which just won’t happen.
West Virginia 38
Rutgers 20

Other Top 25 Action:

Texas A&M Aggies over #9 Kansas Jayhawks
Kansas’ unblemished season can’t continue forever.  The college football gods won’t allow it.  A trip to College Station is never a good thing and although the Jayhawks showed they could win on the road, they have struggled in their last away from home.  Kyle Field with the 12th Man is an entirely different monster and I think A&M QB Stephen McGee and touchdown-machine Jorvorskie Lane will be too much for a very good, but unchallenged Jayhawks rush defense.    

#13 Missouri Tigers over Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State had their one hoorah of the season last week in their close battle but eventual loss to Oklahoma.  Missouri comes off its best performance of the season in a manhandling of Texas Tech and now just have to stay healthy until their regular season finale showdown with Kansas that will decide the Big 12 North champion.

#14 Kentucky Wildcats over Mississippi State Bulldogs
Andre’ Woodson had one of the greatest games I’ve ever seen in a losing effort.  Woodson along with a very under-rated rushing attack should be way too much for the Bulldogs to handle.

#15 Virginia Cavaliers over North Carolina State Wolfpack
I will reiterate my point from last week that UVa has sold their souls as the Maryland game so obviously proved.  I still want to know how that official gave them that ridiculously generous spot on fourth down.  The Cavaliers are the worst 7-1 football team I can remember, but the Wolfpack are worse so expect Virginia to be the worst 8-1 team in football come next week. 

Tennessee Volunteers over #16 South Carolina Gamecocks
Both teams come off embarrassing losses, so redemption will be on the minds of everyone. I could get into numbers, but those aren’t the important thing.  What is important is that Tennessee has lost three games this season, but all have come on the road.  Rocky Top will be blaring throughout Knoxville all night into the early morning.  

#19 Texas Longhorns over Nebraska Cornhuskers
Not even Tom Osborne could put life into the Cornhuskers.  Texas bigggggg in this one.

#20 Michigan Wolverines over Minnesota Golden Gophers
Michigan proved they could win without Mike Hart and Minnesota just lost to North Dakota State.  The Wolverines will roll in this one.

#22 Auburn Tigers over Mississippi Rebels
Auburn was one tipped pass away from being in the Top 10, but now they sit at No. 22.  Senior QB Brandon Cox and head coach Tommy Tuberville won’t allow a letdown this week against a game, but inferior Ole Miss squad.

#17 Hawaii Warriors over New Mexico State Aggies
Points should be aplenty in this battle of two great offensive minds Hawaii’s June Jones and the Aggies’ Hal Mumme.  Hawaii QB Colt Brennan has 20 TD passes this season, but has uncharacteristically thrown 10 interceptions already.  This will be the Warriors last semi-cupcake before their last four regular season games, three of which will be their toughest opponents of the season.