NFL Playoff Preview: Round One

Morphing from a Power Ranking into an NFL Playoff preview like Optimus Prime, it’s the TEPR (Thomas Emerick Power Rankings)!

On the heels of a decent season of prognostication and a near dead-on call in Super Bowl XLI (Breaking Down the Big Game), I’ve decided to push my thoughts on readership and friends (mostly the same people) once again. The self-proclaimed “postseason pigskin pundit” will, sometimes uncomfortably in third-person, tell you what and why before it occurs…Or perhaps he’ll just get it half right and claim he nailed it!

…Gosh, I sure need to find someone to write a foreword. What’s J.K. Rowling, or Mark Twain up to these days?

Anyways, I acknowledge that publish and broadcast analysts have the ability to pick victors about as accurately as anyone with access to NFL.com and too much time on their hands. There’s just too much variability and parity in the NFL to gauge all the factors successfully every given week.

Though, as Bob Dylan once mused, “Half of the people can be part right all of the time. Some of the people can be all right part of the time. But all the people can't be all right all the time.”

Like last year, I tend to be all right come playoff time. The success of my short-lived regular season picks section wasn’t quite becoming of an expert. Though, my hours upon hours of number crunching and the bounty put out on my legs and fingers hopefully figures to turn things around!

Saturday 4:30 ET Washington (9-7) at Seattle (10-6) -3.5

Todd Collins is a poor man’s version of Jeff Garcia-please don’t leave because I uttered “a poor man’s version of Jeff Garcia”, I promise that it’s okay in this context. He makes smart decisions and manages the game even though he has the appearance and arm strength of a division I-AA quarterback. With a strong defense and good running game, though, they can serve as the perfect catalyst to a postseason run.

Many of you have probably heard the ’05 Redskins comparison ad nauseum, but Clinton Portis’ tear down the stretch strongly reminisces it. Their rush defense is playing up to par with any.

This won’t affect Seattle too much, because they can’t run the ball anyways. Couple this with their difficulty in protecting the already dinged up Matt Hasselbeck, and the Seahawks become the weakest team to survive into the New Year. An elite offensive mind (Holmgren) and quarterback carried this sporadic offense into the playoffs, but Shaun Alexander’s rapid decline and Maurice Morris’ mediocrity leave them ill-equipped for January.

The Redskins will struggle, especially early, on offense.  Patrick Kerney figures to add to his NFL leading 14.5 sacks while hunting down the understatedly immobile Todd Collins (he’s tortoise-like). While Collins has thrown five touchdowns and no picks during their 4-game winning streak, he’s yet to excel against a playoff caliber defense and, no, a litany of Dallas backups doesn’t count.

TEPR Prediction: The Seahawks elevate their play at home where they are 7-1, but line protection proves playoff poison. Both quarterbacks will be terrorized, but Washington can ground the game and still move the ball effectively. Seattle can’t.

Washington 13, Seattle 10

Saturday 8:00 ET Jacksonville (11-5) at Pittsburgh (10-6) +1

After traveling north to Pittsburgh and making a 29-22 statement just three weeks ago, the Jaguars return hoping to smash their way into the divisional round. They beat Pittsburgh at their own game in Week 15, outrushing the Steelers 224-115 while outgaining in an even more staggering fashion (421-217).

Typically, the team that loses in the first match packs a bigger punch the second time around, but I don’t think any adjustments will overcome the fact that Steelers were punished on December 16 with Willie Parker. Najeh Davenport provides an above average substitute for the injured Parker, but this offensive line thrived on perimeter rushing which better-suited Parker.

As I’ve said in my power rankings through out the year, never underestimate a quarterback who protects the football. It’s easier said than done, and David Gerrard has branched out of this to become a weapon in his own rite. He threw for five touchdowns over his last two starts, including the victory of Pittsburgh.

Jacksonville will continue to ail from the absence of injured defensive tackle Marcus Stroud, but this defense is tougher and more cohesive than their 12th overall rank suggests. One key match up to watch is cornerback Rashean Mathis on veteran wide out Hines Ward.

TEPR Prediction: Pittsburgh retains the nucleus and, therefore, poise of a team two year’s removed from a championship. The wily Ben Roethlisberger has flown under the radar this season as one of the league’s top quarterbacks and will keep Pittsburgh in striking distance. Though, I see Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor keeping the ball and the game out of Big Ben’s hands in the fourth quarter.

Jacksonville 30, Pittsburgh 17

Sunday 1:00 ET New York Giants (10-6) at Tampa Bay (9-7) -3

To rest, or not to rest?

That is the question Football Night in America’s Chris Collinsworth posed during last Sunday’s telecast. He suggested that this could be the perfect case study for whether it’s better to rest or play your starters when Week 17 bears no effect on playoff seeding.

Tampa Bay chose to rest quarterback Jeff Garcia and top wide receiver Joey Galloway because, considering both figure to hit their mid-life crisis in the next few years, their bodies could use the extra rest.

Tom Coughlin played his starters for sixty minutes not only in an attempt to derail New England’s perfect season on national television, but to achieve some sort of rhythm and cohesion in an offense that has lacked it. He certainly achieved this, as the struggling Eli Manning through for over 250 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Though, I’m going to play devil’s advocate and say that perhaps each team may have just chosen the option better suited for their selves.

Either way, I hear many analysts try to label the younger Manning as a quarterback that can’t bring his from behind in a pressure situation. This theory is baffling; he’s lead his team to nine career fourth quarter come backs in just three full seasons as a starter. Not to mention, his arm lead Big Blue on a game tying fourth quarter drive in last year’s postseason game.

Still, the Giants would find themselves much more comfortable taking an early lead, handing off to Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw (who combined for 295 yards rushing in Week 16), and allowing defensive linemen Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, and Justin Tuck to pin their ears back and make Jeff Garcia look like Colt Brennan.

This could be easily debunked if Garcia-to-Galloway burns them early and often. Galloway averages nearly 18 yards per catch, and he’s truly been the spark plug for this offense. While Garcia is known as a “game manager”, he’s thrown an accurate deep ball this season and Tampa figures to take their chances against Giants corner Sam Madison, who is nursing an abdominal injury.

Turnovers could also foil the Giants, as they possess the only negative ratio of all playoff teams at minus 9. The Buccaneers are at plus 15.

TEPR Prediction: While Garcia may’ve twice defeated New York in the postseason, the quarterback on the other side may have more to gain from playoff scheduling. In a string of four consecutive games down the stretch, Manning floundered in miserably cold, windy conditions. Against the Patriots in more tolerable weather, Manning gave his best performance this season.

Suffice to say, he’s probably glad to be in Tampa. I expect a heavy dose of the half-ton convoy called Kareem McKenzie, Chris Snee, Madison Hedgecock, and Brandon Jacobs to wear down a smaller Bucs defense, control possession, and neutralize injury problems and inconsistencies in the passing game.

New York 24, Tampa Bay 20

Sunday 4:30 ET Tennessee (10-6) at San Diego (11-5) -9

Tennessee will keep this one relatively close due to the match up issue they pose against San Diego. With defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth healthy, the Titans possess what is arguably the NFL’s best run defense, while San Diego thrives off handing the ball to league rushing champ LaDainian Tomlinson.

Aside from that, Vince Young/Kerry Collins and the Titans are vastly overwhelmed. Young’s leg injury proves especially painful, as the over/under on fumbles would be about seven for the slippery-fingered Collins. He’s by far the better passer of the two, but you don’t want the Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips to know where your quarterback will stand every time he drops back.

After losing top wide receiver Roydell Williams (and yes I said top), the Titans throwing options thinned down to Justin Gage, rookie Chris Davis, and Eric “I haven’t retired yet?” Moulds…And no, this is not a training camp battle to make the roster. They may literally be better off running the ball 80 percent of the time with 1,100-yard rusher LenDale White and Chris Brown.

Phillip Rivers hasn’t inspired an incredible deal of confidence this year, but he won’t cough this one up. In the Chargers’ Week 14 win in Tennessee, he threw two fourth quarter touchdown passes to bring San Diego to a come-from-behind 23-17 overtime victory. Expect a 15-20 passes by way of Antonio Gates and Chris Chambers.

TEPR Prediction: This one mirrors the Seattle-Washington match up in many ways. One team is riding a winning streak into the game that has spanned more than a month back. The other has an underrated, tenacious defense, but only one functional dimension to their offense. However, in this three-vs.-six seed late afternoon duel, the home team will emerge victor, where San Diego is a dominant (7-1).

San Diego 17, Tennessee 6