TEPR Postseason Preview (Divisional Round)

Praying for snow in Foxboro, it’s the TEPR (Thomas Emerick Postseason Rant-tacular)!

Forget the past four months. Forget 12, 13, or even 16-win marks. The coming of January signals the beginning of a whole new season.

Just ask the ’05 Colts or the ’06 Chargers, who each tore off a 14-2 record during the regular season, only to go winless come playoff time.

This works on an individual level as well.

Last week at Heinz Field, Jacksonville almost found out the hard way. David Garrard nearly equaled his season interception total Saturday night as the Jaguars narrowly avoided a collapse under uncharacteristic mistakes..

In a stark contrast to the Redskins four-game winning streak, Todd Collins was unable to protect the football (and his line to him). His zero interceptions helped ignite the Redskins’ surge into the playoffs about as quickly as his two pick-sixes against Seattle ran them out.

Ask the Tampa Bay Buccaneers what happened to all the Eli Manning fumbles and errant passes that were supposed to fall into their laps. Manning’s 20 regular season interceptions did not benefit Tampa during his two-touchdown, no interception performance.

On the other side, the normally reliable Jeff Garcia tossed a crippling pick into the end zone at a crucial point late in the game.

However, the second season has been pretty good to yours truly…so far that is. Last week I went 3-1 against the spread, with Washington’s 35-13 free fall creating the only blemish on my record.

To recap:
                                               Actual      TEPR Prediction
Giants-Bucs (-4)                     24-14                        24-20
Chargers-Titans (+9)                        17-6                        17-6 (Dead on!)
Seahawks-Redskins (+3.5)      35-13                        10-13 (Ouch,but I still got the Skins’ score)
Jaguars-Steelers (+1)                30-17                        31-29

So, I’m batting .750 against the spread and between the three victors I only missed picking one final score…by one point. Across the board, I nailed the exact scores of four different teams.

….What can I say, it’s a gift! (Here’s my disclaimer in the event next week blows up in my face: this was all just a giant case study to see if self-deprecation-- which filled last Friday’s column—can lead to a better karmic fate than open gloating.)

While I drown in narcissism and await nature’s verdict, read the proof’s wonderful pudding!

Saturday 4:30 ET Seattle at Green Bay (-8)

I admit it.

I was wrong about Seattle. I thought the fact that they have poor protection and a disintegrated rushing attack would cost them against the Redskins. Marcus Trufant and their defense proved me wrong.

…Instead it’ll cost them against the Packers.

A quick series of late defensive touchdowns seems much less likely to occur against Brett Favre than Todd Collins.  There’s actually a better chance of this happening to Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck who, in his effort to carry the offense, has become quite over-aggressive.

The Redskins left about four or five interceptions on the table last week. Seattle’s receivers should be commended for their defensive work.

I don’t see the Green Bay offense having their way against an extremely athletic, aggressive, and underrated Seahawks defense. Though, I do see their defense giving Ryan Grant, Favre, and Favre’s slew of speed demons a few extra possessions.

TEPR Prediction: While I acknowledge Hasselbeck as an elite quarterback, there’ll be too much weight on his shoulders in Lambeau. I see ball-hawking Packer defenders like Al Harris, Charles Woodson, and Nick Barnett to produce points and/or favorable field position.

Suffice to say, Harris and Hasselbeck just may team up for some poetic justice.

Green Bay 31, Seattle 10

Saturday 8:00 ET Jacksonville at New England (-13)

Is it perhaps weird to buy a Maurice Jones-Drew jersey without actually being a Jaguars fan? Obviously, wearing jerseys of a rival team is strictly forbidden. This not being the case, I’ve been long trying to gauge whether or not MoJo was far enough along the verge of popularity to qualify as a socially acceptable purchase.

For example, if you regularly sported a Ryan Grant jersey, but claimed allegiance to the New York Jets, people would call you weird. At least I would. He just hasn’t achieved enough notoriety or longevity yet.

Not only has Jones-Drew provided the Jaguars’ best home run threat over the past two seasons, but now seems to be a big-game difference maker as well. His 168 all-purpose yards keyed the Jaguars stampede to a 28-10 lead against Pittsburgh.

MoJo and Fred Taylor comprise a backfield that can do it all for team that plays tough and has gelled at just the right time. Some say their momentum lost its luster when Pittsburgh score 19 unanswered in the fourth quarter to take back the lead.

Though, the bottom line is winning. Besides Jacksonville, Pittsburgh had lost only one of its last eleven home games. The Jaguars won there twice this season, and should be given a lot more credit for winning in a tough place than criticized for not dropping the rout-hammer.

That all being said, I wish I was man enough to pick the Jaguars outright…but I’m not. Premonitions of Brady stepping into the shotgun and ripping apart the Jags defense in the fourth quarter are just too much. I’ll settle for the spread.

New England 34, Jacksonville 24

Sunday 1:00 ET San Diego at Indianapolis (-8.5)

If Gates isn’t good-to-go—and I seriously doubt he will be—San Diego will get swallowed whole by the league’s number one scoring defense…and no, “one” wasn’t mistype.

The Indianapolis Colts gave up a league low 262 points during the regular season—and once again, my typemanship is fine and I did mean to say “the Indianapolis Colts”. This is quite the improvement from ‘06’s 23rd ranking.

Though, even more important than that statistic is the fact that Bob Sanders is healthy. His dominance in the Colts’ Super Bowl run didn’t fizzle out during the ’07 regular season, as he earned the Defensive Player of the Year Award.

If there’s any one player that can neutralize LaDainian Tomlinson, it’s Sanders. Without Gates to worry about, he and the Colts’ suddenly vaunted defense can focus in on LT and live with what Philip Rivers and Chris Chambers will throw at them.

While on the offensive side, you can bet Peyton Manning and the NFL’s third-ranked scoring offense will post at least twenty. I see Shawne Merriman and Sean Phillips giving Indy issues off the edge, but Joseph Addai is a good enough receiver out of the backfield to limit their carnage to some degree.

TEPR Predication: Nothing lights a fire quite like disrespect; a season sitting backseat to most NFL headlines will leave a chip on the shoulder of the defending champs.

The Chargers have New England to blame for this, but will still suffer the wrath. Don’t expect the Colts to foil from bye week rust this year.

Indianapolis 23, San Diego 10

Sunday 4:30 ET New York Giants at Dallas (-7.5)

There is no way I would touch that spread with money. This primarily because gambling is illegal, of course, but if it weren’t, it’s because of a few major factors that leave me confounded.

Injuries are the main wild card here. Terrell Owens’ Wolverine-like healing abilities make me want to ignore the fact that his ankle nearly snapped in half a few weeks ago. Also, Tony Romo’s bum thumb plagued him severely through his final three regular season starts and I wonder if the extra rest will really do the trick.

The air of injury uncertainty swirls around the Giants’ camp as well. Sam Madison’s abdominal injury plays an especially crucial role not only if T.O. plays, but due to the return of Terry Glenn to health (allegedly).

Madison may not look it, but he’s one of league’s better corners at jamming and roughing up receivers at the line of scrimmage. No skill asset could be more important this week. Over-achieving cornerback Kevin Dockery isn’t a sure-thing for Sunday either, adding to New York’s secondary woes.

No matter who plays for the Cowboys on Sunday, Romo will add to his 8 touchdown passes against Big Blue this season if the Giants blow coverage on seam routes as often as in the last two meetings.

…One thing that won’t negatively affect Romo is the way he spent his vacation. I keep trying to think of things I care less about than the where’s and who’s of Romo’s trip, but I can’t, I just can’t…And what’s the deal Stalker Vision TMZ.com? Tell me that whole operation isn’t completely creepy.

TEPR Prediction: Aside from the injury mystery, it comes down Marion Barber and Julius Jones. The duo combined for only one yard against Washington, and tailed off somewhat down the stretch. In their two regular season meetings, the Cowboys were able to keep New York’s offense of the field for most of the fourth quarter by grinding it out on the ground.

With injuries hampering Terrence Newman and Roy Williams’ deficiency in deep pass coverage, the Cowboys shouldn’t feel comfortable without the rock in the hands of their halfbacks late.

The question is whether the Cowboys’ recent drop in performance is a mirage or trend. Based on last season’s finish, I’m taking the latter.

New York 24, Dallas 23