Life on the Bubble

At the start of the 2007-08 Virginia Tech Men’s basketball season little was expected. The Hokies were coming off the most successful campaign in over 10 years, but with the departures of Zabian Dowdell, Jamon Gordon and Coleman Collins, it looked to be a rebuilding year. Picked to finish 11th in the Atlantic Coast Conference preseason media poll, the Hokies looked to be ripe for the picking this season.

Unfortunately, no one decided to tell the seven incoming freshmen that they weren’t supposed to win. With one regular season game remaining, the Hokies are in position to make back-to-back NCAA tournament appearances for the first time since the 1985 and 1986 seasons.

With the emergence of five key freshmen: Jeff Allen, Malcolm Delaney, J.T. Thompson, Hank Thorns and Dorenzo Hudson, the Hokies have competed all year long. Many fans believed the Hokies would hit a few snags in the road at the beginning of the season and they did with losses to Penn State, Old Dominion, and the University of Richmond, but the Hokies kept trudging along.

Then came the first ACC game. On the road, the Hokies blew an eight point lead at Wake Forest in the final minute. It seemed like the type of demoralizing loss that could alter a young team’s psyche for the rest of the season.

Down five with a minute to go against Maryland it looked like more of the same, but the Hokies found a way to get it done at home. Then, on the road at John Paul Jones Arena, Deron Washington hit a shot at the buzzer to beat Virginia and the good karma has followed the Hokies around ever since.

With a 9-6 ACC record, the Hokies are probably two wins away from a lock status for the NCAA tournament. Tech’s resume isn’t really strong with an RPI of 59, but it isn’t that bad. The Hokies have no glaring losses that put up red flags, but they don’t have a signature win either. The nine wins are against some good teams in the ACC, but no one in the upper echelon. The Hokies have no wins against RPI top-50 teams with their best win being Maryland, twice.

A win at Clemson on Sunday will give Tech the top-50 win they covet as well as 10 ACC wins. No ACC team has ever been left out of the tournament with 10 conference wins. Only two teams, Florida State in 2006 and UVa in 1999, have ever been left out with 9-7 ACC records. Although history is not supposed to come into consideration with bubble teams, I would have a hard time believing that the selection committee would leave out the third best team in the highest rated conference in America.

Here are the givens right now. Duke and North Carolina are locks, and Clemson is close to being a lock with Miami not far behind. Virginia Tech and Maryland are squarely on the bubble. The Hokies have two wins over the Terps, but teams have been left out in the past that beat teams that made the tournament.

Virginia Tech travels to Death Valley on Sunday with 3 different possible ACC-seeding scenarios. If they win, the Hokies will clinch the third seed in the ACC tournament. If Miami loses on Saturday to Florida State, the Hokies will clinch the fourth seed before even playing the Tigers. A Miami win and a Hokies loss would send the Hokies to the tournament as the fifth seed.

If the first scenario comes true, the Hokies would have a good shot of already being in the tournament with a quarterfinal win in the ACC tournament helping their cause considerably. The second scenario would most likely put them in a must-win quarterfinal match up against either Maryland or Miami. The third scenario would most likely see the Hokies needing to win two games in the tournament to make the Big Dance; one against a bevy of bottom feeders, and a second against either fellow bubble team Miami or Maryland.

It has been a wonderful season for the Hokies basketball team regardless of what transpires over the next week. The Hokies have all but guaranteed themselves a berth in one of the three postseason tournaments. With that being said, here is a conference tournament rooting guide for the Hokies to increase there chances of an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Atlantic 10 – Xavier and Umass look to be locks at this point with several teams vying for the third bid. Hope for early losses from Dayton, St. Josephs and Rhode Island with either Xavier or Umass winning the tournament.

Big East – This conference is a serious log jam. The locks are Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Connecticut and Notre Dame. West Virginia should be in to make it seven with Syracuse and Villanova fighting it out for berths. I don’t see the Big East sending more than eight teams to the dance. Hope for early losses from Villanova and Syracuse.

Big 10 – Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State will be dancing come March. The only remaingin team with a shot is Ohio State. Hope for an early postseason exit from the Buckeyes.

Big 12 – The Big 12 has locks with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Kansas State has a good shot, but outside of that, it’s a crapshoot with Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M who all still have work to do. Hope for early exits from the Bears, Cowboys, and Aggies.

CAA – Virginia Commonwealth ran away with the regular season title and will look to do the same in the tournament at Richmond. Hope for another title run from the Rams without stumbling against league upstarts George Mason and North Carolina-Wilmington.

Conference USA – Memphis is a lock for the tournament coming off a stellar regular season. Houston and Alabama-Birmingham look to be on the outside looking in. Memphis should win the conference tournament on their home court, but hope for losses from the Cougars and Blazers before the finals.

Horizon – Much of the same sentiment for Butler. Playing at home should help the Bulldogs win the league tournament again.

MAC – Kent State picked up a huge win in a BracketBusters game against St. Mary’s. Hope they can keep the winning ways in the tournament.

MVC – Drake was the feel good story of the season and easily wrapped up the regular season crown a couple weeks ago. Illinois State, Southern Illinois and Creighton on the other hand have been on the bubble. I see at least two teams getting a bid in the Missouri Valley, but if Illinois St. loses to Southern Illinois in the semifinals, it could go up to three. Hope for Drake to win the tournament, while playing Illinois State in the final.

MWC – Brigham Young clinched the regular season title and look to be in good shape with a solid RPI to get a bid. Nevada-Las Vegas should be in with a solid season. New Mexico however finds itself on the bubble. A run to the finals could get the Lobos in the tournament; anything less probably won’t. Hope for an early Lobo loss with either the Cougars or Rebels taking the crown in Las Vegas.

Southern – Davidson has an undefeated record in conference play heading into the tournament. Hope that Stephen Curry keeps shooting lights out in the conference tournament.

Pac-10 – California-Los Angeles, Southern California, Stanford and Washington State look to be in. Arizona should also be in which leaves Oregon and Arizona State vying for bids. This has been an unpredictable conference tournament in the past, so hope for early losses from Oregon and Arizona St.

SEC – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Arkansas look to be in solid shape. Kentucky appears to have played their way into the tournament with 11 conference wins. Florida on the other hand is in trouble. Lacking signature wins and a soft out-of-conference schedule, the Gators are in trouble. An early exit in the SEC tournament could mean trouble, but I don’t know whose going to keep out a back-to-back defending champion to defend their crown. Look for the Gators to squeeze in making it six bids for the SEC.

Sun Belt – South Alabama has had an improbable run this year to win the regular season crown. Western Kentucky had a strong season as well. The conference tournament will dictate whether this is a one bid league or if they can steal two this year. Hope for a South Alabama championship with Western Kentucky losing early.

WCC – Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s both had great seasons and appear to be locks for the tournament. A Gonzaga/St. Mary’s match up is a hopeful proposition for everyone on the bubble.