The Will Call: Your Ticket to the Game

Wrapping up the ACC

If you thought with only one game remaining on the schedules for the teams in the ACC (Clemson and Georgia Tech play Thursday night as well as Sunday) that the standings look pretty clear and next week’s tournament seeds in Charlotte seem to be pretty predictable—well my friend—you just don’t know ACC hoops.

It’s incredible the amount of shifting that could occur just by Sunday night. If you don’t feel like spending hours looking up schedules, stats, results etc…have no fear; the Will Call has done it for you.

For the sake of the Will Call’s sleep and to avoid information overload, the Will Call will try as hard as possible to narrow down how the season might turn out just from the vantage point (awesome movie by the way, the Will Call recommends it) of the Virginia Tech Hokies. Besides, who else matters?

The Good, The Bad (but tolerable), and The Ugly

The Will Call has come up with three different scenarios that the Hokie Nation needs to be aware of in regards to where Tech might finish when ACC league play is officially over around 10pm on Sunday with Sean Singletary’s curtain call at UVA. They host the Hokies’ fellow bubble buddy Maryland.

Before I go into detail with each scenario, I will start by saying The Good results in a third place ACC finish for the Hokies--so you could actually say it’s “The Great” or “The Miracle” but then the Will Call’s word play wouldn’t work.

The Bad (but tolerable) isn’t exactly bad parse, however, is not nearly as ideal as The Good. Hence the “but tolerable” after the title. In this scenario, Tech would finish the ACC in fourth.

Lastly, the Will Call has come up with The Ugly. Not a recommended read for the faint of heart or children under the age of 12. It results in Tech finishing in fifth…but upon deeper investigation could really turn this fairy tale season into a nightmare.

On that note the Will Call asks—which do you want first, the good news or the bad news? If you want anything other than The Good first, you’re going to have to scroll down further then scroll back up, because that’s what the Will Call is starting with.

THE GOOD

Regardless of whether or not Clemson wins at Georgia Tech Thursday night, the Tigers host the Hokies Sunday afternoon in a game that the winner walks out as the third place finisher in the ACC. See, even if Clemson goes into the game with one less loss, a loss to the Hokies would mean a tied record between the two teams and give Tech the only head to head victory, thus positioning them for the three seed in the tournament.

This is, Hokie Nation, the best it can get. I mean come on. The Hokies were picked in some polls to finish DEAD LAST in the league this year…and certainly no better than 10th! College basketball analyst and former Dukie Jay Bilas wrote an article for ESPN on January 3rd that proclaimed the Hokies would be the only ACC team to not make a postseason appearance—NCAA or NIT.

Any year the Hokies can finish third in the ACC should be considered a success. Throw in the circumstances and the six freshmen that grace the court each game and the Hokie Nation has something to be excited about.

Another good side note for The Good--Clemson’s senior guard and second leading scorer Cliff Hammonds broke his wrist in their last game against Maryland. Hammonds says he plans to play against Georgia Tech with the broken wrist on Thursday. Now…the Will Call would never wish injury on anyone but let me just repeat that. Hammonds plans to play…ACC basketball…with a broken wrist on Thursday.

Does anybody else see where this could lead? Hammonds is really risking himself in the game Thursday which means half as much as the game Sunday against the Hokies. Let’s all hope he doesn’t awkwardly fall on it. The Will Call does want to point out however that it is his non-shooting wrist.

THE GOOD-Heading into the tournament

So to summarize--The Good assumes that Tech strolls into Littlejohn Coliseum in South Carolina Sunday afternoon and hands it to the #24 ranked Clemson Tigers. Here are the rewards that come with such a victory.

1. Tech finishes the ACC in third
2. Tech ends the season on a five game winning streak
3. Tech ends the season with a statement road victory for the selection committee
4. Tech gets a bye the first round of the ACC tournament
5. Tech reaches 19 overall wins on the season
6. Tech reaches 10 wins in the ACC

One must not underestimate any of these six points.

Finishing in third has to do with better match-ups in the ACC tournament.

Finishing with a five game winning streak shows the NCAA selection committee that you’re playing good ball at the right time.

Road wins over quality opponents is one of the first things the selection committee looks for in picking the at-large bids—they want to see if you can win away from the advantage of your home crowd which will be the situation in the tournament.

A bye the first round takes away the risk of suffering a bubble-bursting loss to a lower seeded team.

With 19 overall wins, Tech is one win away (first game of the tournament) from reaching 20 wins, which is considered in college basketball to be a milestone of sorts.

Lastly, no ACC team with 10 league wins has ever been denied an NCAA tournament bid. With all the crying that this year’s conference is weaker than in the past, the RPI numbers that place it as the top in the land should refute that argument and protect the value of 10 ACC league wins.

The last step to The Good is that as the three seed, Tech then beats the winner of the 6/11 match-up. With Tech finishing third, this would slip Clemson into fourth and either Maryland or Miami would fall to sixth.

Here it gets a little tricky. Miami has the head to head advantage over Maryland so if they finish in a tie by either both losing or by both winning their final game, Maryland falls to sixth. Maryland will face an emotional UVA team Sunday, trying to win their last game at home for Singletary. Miami has to visit rival Florida State, who is still fighting for their own seeding.

Since this scenario outlines the best possible situation for Tech, let’s say Maryland knocks off UVA and Miami takes a loss at FSU, putting them at 8-8 and in sixth. Not only is this good because Miami is a fellow bubble team and it adds another loss for them but it also gives the Hokies a chance to play Miami in the second round as a 3 vs. 6 game.

This is very crucial. The Hokies could then avenge the home loss to Miami from a few weeks ago and with the victory reach 20 wins and send a message to the selection committee that if it comes down to picking between Miami or Virginia Tech for an at large bid, that perhaps the Hokies would get the green light.

Plus the fact that a third win over Maryland would not make the same impact (OK so you’ve got a teams’ number) as a win over a different potential tournament team.

The Hokies would then face Duke or North Carolina, depending on who finishes the season in second, and it would be nice to have a respectable showing even in a loss.

THE BAD ( but tolerable)

The Bad may not be as bad as people are thinking. The Bad means Tech loses to Clemson on Sunday but Miami still loses at FSU. This is critical in that Tech still finishes in fourth place even if they tie with Maryland because they have the series sweep on the Terps and the Hurricanes would fall a game behind to 8-8 and in sixth.

As a fourth place team, Tech would still get the first round bye resulting in avoiding the early bounce. They would play the winner of the 5/12 game, which in this case would either be Maryland or Miami as the 5 seed.

If Miami were the 5 seed that means Maryland would have lost against UVA to finish the season, vaulting the Wahoos out of the dungeon into a 10 or 11 seed.

This means the 12 seed would either be Boston College or NC State. If the two tie, Boston College has the head to head over NC State. Boston College finishes the season hosting Georgia Tech while NC State has to hit the road to play at Wake Forest. Based on these two facts, we’re going to give NC State the 12 seed.

On the flip side to that, if Maryland finishes 5th it really is a toss up between UVA, BC, and NC State getting the 12 seed. Surprisingly, the Wahoos own the head to head over both schools so if BC or NC State suffers a loss on Saturday, they’re destined to be the 12 seed. Right now it really does look like NC State has the probability.

So Tech plays the winner of either Miami/NC State or Maryland/NC State. As I’ve worded this The Bad (but tolerable), I’ll rule out NC State pulling off the upset over Maryland or Miami and then beating the Hokies as usual. Don’t be surprised if that happens though, all you have to do is look back to last year’s tournament as the Wolfpack took their 10-seeded team to the championship game…beating the Hokies in the semi-finals.

So Tech either beats NC State as a 4/12 match-up, which doesn’t look as impressive, or plays Maryland or Miami. For The Bad, let’s say they beat Maryland, again, not looking as significant since it is the third time doing so, and then the Hokies get thumped again by North Carolina or Duke as the 1/ 4 match-up.

With only 19 wins, a bad loss to end the season, and no trademark victory, the Hokies would truly be a team on the bubble on Selection Sunday.

THE UGLY

This scenario is not for suited for children. If you’re pregnant or have a history of heart disease, the Will Call wishes you to consult your doctor. Really.

Imagine this…imagine total collapse based on just the few games left in the ACC this season. Here we go.

The Hokies visit Clemson and get destroyed. The Will Call did a little math for this one. Clemson has won six out of seven ACC games at home this season. Their one loss? North Carolina on a Wayne Ellington buzzer beater in overtime. The other six victories have come by an average of just over 13 points.

Two of those home wins come in overtime. This could be considered good or bad. The good is that teams have been able to take Clemson into overtime on their home court. The bad is that if you take out the overtime games, Clemson has beaten ACC opponents in regulation on their home floor by an average of nearly 16 points.

It gets worse. With the Clemson loss, Tech falls to 9-7. The Hurricanes storm into Tallahassee and hand an undermanned FSU team (second leading scorer Isaiah Swann has a torn ACL for the Seminoles) a loss and finish 9-7 as well. Miami owns the head to head over the Hokies so Tech could possibly fall to fifth place!

Bye-bye first round bye. Think it’s over? The nightmare has just begun. Now forced to play in the 5/12 game on Thursday, whom would the Hokies play? Oh say it isn’t so!

One of the leading candidates would be the NC State Wolfpack. Why is this bad you ask? What’s so bad with playing a 4-12 basement team? Shouldn’t that be an easy win?

The Hokies have not beaten NC State since their fourth ever ACC game back in 2004-2005. The score to that game: 72-71. So even in their one victory of NC State in who knows how many years, it was by one point at home? Ouch.

Honestly, what could be worse than Tech losing again to NC State in a 5/12 match-up in the first round of the ACC tournament?

The Ugly can top it—how about losing to the one, the only University of Virginia Wahoos!

Hokie Nation could you even fathom it? During football season, Tech goes into Charlottesville and earns an ACC championship game bid by beating rival UVA. Still back in the fall, Tech clearly shows it’s dominance in European football (futbol) by reaching the final four in soccer.

But the focal point to this anti-climax. Hokie basketball wins in C-Ville for the first time in 40 years back in January! They then complete the season sweep with a second overtime win against UVA weeks later in Blacksburg. Oh the joy!

But in this case all of these blissful results are mere building blocks to set up the most disastrous end to a wonderful season one could imagine.

Here it is. Tech falls to fifth with the Clemson loss and Miami win. UVA manages to stay in the basement with a loss hosting Maryland and both NC State and Boston College grabbing season ending victories. This is the only way to set up such a horrid scenario.

The Hokies have a possible NCAA bid on the line. The Wahoos—nothing. But what would be sweeter revenge for our in-state friends than to burst the bubble of the Hokies in a first round 5/12 upset? The answer…absolutely nothing.

So there you have it hoops fans. Those are your three scenarios. We’ll all find out in the days to come which one gets the setup and then in the next week what exactly takes place.

I have a final piece of parting advice for you nervous, restless Hokie faithful who are having a little trouble sleeping at night due to bubble-itious. In the words of the ever-fading Al Davis, if you want a tournament bid, “Just win, baby.”