Blown Coverage: Week 3

By Andrew Hill
September 11, 2008 

Well, what should have been a dream week of 22-0 turned into 21-1 nightmare. I let my affection for Pat White blind me to the threat that was East Carolina. The eight-point spread was as subtle as a punch in the face, but somehow I still managed to miss the hint that maybe Las Vegas thought the Mountaineers were ready for a fall. While we're on the topic of overrated teams, let's take a walk down Wall Street to find out which teams are over and undervalued.

BULLISH

Miami- Considering the Canes' youth and inexperience, they played surprisingly well against Florida. Miami will be a player in the ACC title race.

Penn State- The Nittany Lions' offense has been surprisingly strong this year, couple that with stout defense and great home field advantage.

South Florida (USF)- Excellent defense, one of the most underrated QB's in the country; Matt Grothe is what Jake Locker would look like on a winning team.

Missouri- It is tough to say the number six team in the nation is undervalued, but they should be getting more attention in the national title race.

Rice- High powered offense led by Chase Clement. Game this weekend at Vanderbilt will be a great gauge of this team.

BEARISH

Auburn- The defense is strong, but there are glaring problems on the offensive side of the ball.

Kansas- Good offense, bad defense. Their record is based on playing bad teams and too many key players departed to the draft and graduation.

Arizona State- Rudy Carpenter is a very good QB but Arizona State's defense is lacking and they will have trouble winning the big games.

West Virginia- Hate to say it but they are not the same team as last year. The team misses Owen Schmitt, Darius Reynaud, head coach Rich Rodriguez and strength a conditioning coach Mike Barwis. It seems like Bill Stewart is trying too hard to switch up the offensive game plan and straying away from what got the Mountaineers to where they are.

PREDICTIONS:  Last Week's Picks: 20-1 YTD: 40-5 (88.9%)

To borrow a joke from the great Chad Dukes of the Big O and Dukes Show, I am doing uppercuts and round-house kicks in my living room just thinking about the slate of games offered this weekend. There are a lot of premier matchups and several games with upset potential. With that being said, I am creating a new "Watchability Scale" for each of the games. 

«««««- Can't miss game of the week... Usually has BCS implications

««««-Either a tough rivalry game or interesting out-of-conference matchup

«««- Game contains either an exciting player(s) or a team with a powerful offense or defense

««-A small step up from a one-star game...very tough to get excited about. Usually contains a team like Indiana or Maryland

«- About as entertaining as Billy Crystal or Big 10 basketball. Watchable only for alumni or the most degenerate of degenerate gamblers

1 USC vs. 5 Ohio State «««««
With James Laurinaitis, Rey Maualuga and Brian Cushing, this game is going to be a showcase of the best linebackers college football has to offer. In the past five years, USC is 6-0 vs. ranked non-conference teams.
Winner: USC 

2 Georgia at South Carolina «««
Knowshon Moreno has had back-to-back hat trick games. South Carolina's defense will be his first real test this year, but it will not be enough to keep him from the end zone and a win.
Winner: Georgia

3 Oklahoma at Washington ««««
Apparently the officiating crew working the Washington-BYU game last week has never heard of something called the spirit of the rule. The ref decided that he was going to take it upon himself to seriously affect the outcome of the game rather than let the players decide.  I would say this would be a perfect revenge game for the Huskies, but Oklahoma is too good to lose this one.  Lucky for Washington, the schedule gets slightly easier for the next couple of games, emphasis on slightly.
Winner: Oklahoma

4 Florida - Idle 

6 Missouri vs. Nevada «««
Nevada runs into another powerful offense this week except that this time they have to travel to Columbia. Don't expect Missouri's offense to sputter in the same way Texas Tech's did last week.
Winner: Missouri

7 LSU vs. North Texas «
The Tigers are favored by 41.5 points. North Texas has given up an average of 50.5 points the past two games. Saturday night in Death Valley, the Tigers cover.
Winner: LSU

8 Texas vs. Arkansas ««
I wish I could bring back Darren McFadden, Felix Jones and Peyton Hillis for one more game and give Arkansas a chance in this one.
Winner: Texas (Editor's note - Game postponed until Sept. 27)

9 Auburn at Mississippi State«««
Anytime a highly ranked team with a poor offense heads to an SEC school at night, there is a good chance for an upset. Auburn wins, however, in a close one.
Winner: Auburn

10 Wisconsin at Fresno State ««««
Pat Hill's team is known for its motto: "Play anybody, anytime, anywhere." Well that line has been put to the test this season so far, traveling cross country to play Rutgers. This week, Wisconsin comes to the San Joaquin Valley for Fresno's most important game in several years.
Winner: Fresno State

11 Alabama vs. Western Kentucky «
WKU continues it transition from FCS to FBS as it spends one year as an independent before fully joining the Sun Belt Conference in 2009. 
Winner: Alabama

12 Texas Tech vs. Southern Methodist «««
June Jones' transition of SMU to the run-and-shoot offense came out flat against Rice in week 1, giving up 56 points. Consider Texas Tech a much better version of Rice.
Winner: Texas Tech 

13 Kansas at 19 South Florida ««««
In 2006, USF traveled to Lawerence and escaped with a 13-7 win. Both offenses have greatly improved since then, except South Florida has the much better defense led by George Selvie. Last year the Bulls took out West Virginia on a Friday night and this year Kansas is next.
Winner: South Florida

14 East Carolina at Tulane ««
The only beat down worse than the one laid on the Mountaineers last weekend was the smack down put on several ECU fans courtesy of the police officers at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. Video
Winner: East Carolina

15 Arizona State vs. UNLV ««
Arizona State was able to wear out Stanford the week before. UNLV will be no different.
Winner: Arizona State

16 Oregon at Purdue «««
Oregon has averaged 55 points over the past two games. With Curtis Painter leading Purdue's offense, they should be able to keep up with Oregon, but the Ducks will get the win in a close game.
Winner: Oregon

17 Penn State at Syracuse «
Syracuse lost to Akron, giving up 42 points at home. Greg Robinson looks to be on his way out, posting a 7-30 record since joining the Orange, including a 1-10 season in 2005, the worst single-season record in school history.
Winner: Penn State

18 BYU vs. UCLA «««
BYU might have gotten a little help last week, but they won't need it this weekend when UCLA comes to town. They will need to rely on the passing game to get through this one. If BYU wins, they should be on cruise control until the final two games of the season, at Air Force and at Utah.
Winner:  BYU 

20 Wake Forest  - Idle

22 Utah at Utah St. ««
Rivarly game early in the season. Utah wins in a game that will be closer than expected.
Winner: Utah

23 Cal at Maryland ««
This game should have upset potential. A  Cal team has to travel cross country to Maryland for a noon start time. But it won't be, as Maryland is pretty much hitting bottom after struggling against Delaware and losing to Middle Tennessee. The last thing they want to see is Cal's high powered offense rolling into town.
Winner: Cal

24 Illinois vs. Louisiana-Lafayette «
The Cajuns' defense surrendered 633 yards of total offense to Southern Mississippi in week 1. The Illini will be fine this week before a big night game in Happy Valley next week.
Winner: Illinois

 25 West Virginia - Idle