Blown Coverage: Week 10

By Andrew Hill
October 30, 2008

This week, we are going to look at college football in a state-by-state basis. Each state will be ranked according to how their respective teams are playing this year. There are a couple of rules to this analysis:

1.     FBS teams only

2.     Only games played this season count

3.     State must have a minimum of 4 teams (Oklahoma gets the only exception because their 3 teams are all ranked in the top 20)

Therefore, the following states, despite having noteworthy teams, won't be looked at:

·       Pennsylvania

·       Virginia

·       Georgia

·       Arizona

·       Mississippi

·       Utah

·       Kansas

1)   Texas 43-38 (53.1%)

Texas gets the nod for having three teams in the top 15, including two undefeated top 10 teams, and handing the state of Oklahoma its only two losses so far. Year after year, Texas produces some of the best talent in the country, especially quarterbacks, which they lead the FBS with 21 starting quarterbacks. Some notable QB's who played Texas high school football: Chase Clement (Rice), Chase Daniel (Missouri), Casey Dick (Arkansas), Graham Harrell (Texas Tech), Matt Stafford (Georgia), Todd Reesing (Kansas), Christian Ponder (FSU), Jarrett Lee (LSU), Colt McCoy (Texas), and Jevan Snead (Ole Miss). Full List Here

·       No. 1 Texas (8-0)

·       No. 7 Texas Tech (8-0)

·       No. 13 TCU (8-1)

·       Baylor (3-5)

·       Texas A&M (3-5)

·       Rice (5-3)

·       Houston (4-4)

·       UTEP (3-4)

·       SMU (1-8)

·       North Texas (0-8)

2) Oklahoma 22-2 (91.7%)

Despite boasting a gaudy 91% win percentage, Oklahoma comes in second to rival Texas. This is a clear example of quality over quantity, something the state of Ohio could learn. Sadly, none of these three teams have a realistic shot at a National Championship appearance this year.

·       No. 4 Oklahoma (7-1)

·       No. 9 Oklahoma State (7-1)

·       No. 18 Tulsa (8-0)

3) Florida 31-21(59.6%)

There are a lot of quality teams in the state of Florida but they are nowhere near where they should be. Miami, FSU and pretty much USF should be competing for BCS spots and National Championship appearances year after year. The state, as a whole, is on the rise but they're not back to form yet.

·       No. 8 Florida (6-1)

·       No. 15 Florida State (6-1)

·       No. 23 USF (6-2)

·       Miami (5-3)

·       UCF (2-5)

·       FIU (3-4)

·       FAU (3-5)

4) North Carolina 20- 17 (54.1%)

Wake Forest is playing way below expectations, Duke is playing way above and UNC is pretty much where people thought they would be, much improved and competing for the Coastal. ECU is having a nice season but has fallen short of their BCS dreams, and NC State is a mess for yet another season.

·       No. 22 North Carolina (6-2)

·       Wake Forest (4-3)

·       East Carolina (4-3)

·       NC State (2-6)

·       Duke (4-3)

5) California 29-24 (54.7%)

USC needs to catch a few breaks to make it to a National Championship. Fresno couldn't live up to the preseason hype. Cal is playing consistently and a win in a big matchup against Oregon should bump them into the top 20.

·       No. 5 USC (6-1)

·       No. 24 California (5-2)

·       Fresno State (5-2)

·       San Jose State (5-3)

·       UCLA (3-5)

·       Stanford (4-4)

·       San Diego State (1-7)

6) Alabama (19-12) 61.3%

Alabama is at the top of the SEC and Troy is at the top of the Sun Belt. Auburn fell way short of expectations and UAB is struggling to stay out of Conference USA's basement.

·       No. 2 Alabama (8-0)

·       Auburn (4-4)

·       Troy (5-2)

·       Alabama Birmingham (2-6)

7) Ohio 25-31 (44.6%)

Ohio is filled with a lot of mediocre teams in a MAC conference that is way down this year. Ohio State has fallen short of their expectations for another National Championship appearance.  The only bright spot is a Cincinnati team that is struggling to stay alive in the Big East.

·       No. 12 Ohio State (7-2)

·       Cincinnati (5-2)

·       Akron 4-4)

·       Bowling Green (3-5)

·       Toledo (2-6)

·       Miami (2-6)

·       Kent State (2-6)

8) Michigan 23- 19 (54.8%)

University of Michigan is a complete mess right now and is dragging down the rest of the state. Everyone else is playing well except for Eastern Michigan, but that's no big surprise. OSU has dominated the state of Michigan this year.

·       No. 21 Michigan State  (7-2)

·       Central Michigan  (6-2)

·       Western Michigan  (6-2)

·       Michigan  (2-6)

·       Eastern Michigan  (2-7)

9) Tennessee 14-19 (42.4%)

Vanderbilt and Tennessee were two of the biggest surprises of the SEC this year; except that Vandy was a nice surprise and Tennessee just left a terrible taste in everyone's mouth. The rest of the state is very average.

·       Vanderbilt  (5-3)

·       Tennessee  (3-5)

·       Memphis  (4-5)

·       Middle Tennessee State  (2-6)

10) Indiana 18-13 (58.1%)

Indiana boasts the bottom two teams in the Big 10, and a Notre Dame team that has a winning record thanks to an incredibly easy schedule. It turns out that Ball State is the best team in the state.

·       No. 16 Ball State (8-0)

·       Notre Dame (5-2)

·       Indiana (3-5)

·       Purdue (2-6)

11) Louisiana 16-20 (44.4%)

The state of Louisiana has seen better times. LSU is desperately missing Bo Pelini and the rest of the state is pretty average. I regret adding them to the list but they fit the criteria.

·       No. 19 LSU (5-2)

·       Tulane (2-5)

·       Louisiana Lafayette (4-3)

·       Louisiana Tech (3-4)

·       Louisiana Monroe (2-6)

Last Week's Picks: 13-7 YTD: 133-40 (76.9%)
Lines provided by sportsbooks.com

BCS

1 Texas (-4) at 7 Texas Tech«««««
ESPN College Gameday comes to Lubbock, Texas for, by far, the best game of the day. If Tech wins this game, be prepared for the BCS to be thrown into a total mess. I am still waiting for someone to stop Mike Leach's air raid offense.  The question will be can the massive O-line of the Red Raiders be able to keep the highly talented Longhorn D-line from touching TT QB Graham Harrell. The only thing that scares me, which looks worse: Jim Carrey's next motion picture bomb "Yes Man" or Texas Tech's kicking situation. It's a toss up.
Winner: Texas Tech

2 Alabama (-22.5) vs. Arkansas State «
What is Alabama doing getting a gimmie game like this so late in the season? That is like getting your appetizer halfway through finishing your entrée. I guess if I had to travel to a wounded LSU team most likely at night, I would like a warm up game too.
Winner: Alabama

3 Penn State - Idle

4 Oklahoma (-22) vs. Nebraska«««
Oklahoma needs to win and win big to get back into the National Championship hunt.  About 15 years ago, this game would have had meaning; outside of the Texas/OK game, this would have been the premiere game in the Midwest. Now it is nothing more than an afterthought. Oklahoma is 5-2 ATS and has gone over 6-1 in the past seven games. Expect a blow out.
Winner: Oklahoma

5 USC (-44.5) vs. Washington ««
Tyrone Willingham is out. So is Washington's chance of covering this spread. It could've been 60 and I don't think the Huskies would've had a chance. USC will empty their bench by the third quarter. Unfortunately for the Huskies, that won't matter much. It is going to be an ugly one.
Winner:  USC

6 Georgia (+6) vs. 8 Florida«««««
The world's largest outdoor cocktail party takes place in Jacksonville, Fla. for this series that is not short on passion. After last year's team touchdown celebration by the Dawgs, the Gators want this one bad. There are big time athletes on both sides of the ball, as the two best teams in the SEC look to produce an instant classic on Saturday.  I'm going Florida in a tight ball game that is decided late in the 4^th quarter.
Winner: Florida

9 Oklahoma State (-31) vs. Iowa State «««
The Cowboys gave the Texas Longhorns all they could handle last Saturday.  This is their last soft game before a tough stretch to end the year. Some might say this is a trap game for an Okie State team that is looking for a shootout the following week at Texas Tech. Not happening at home though, as the Cowboys will score early and often on the Cyclones.
Winner: Oklahoma State

10 Utah (-7.5) at New Mexico «««
Playing in New Mexico is always a tough endeavor for any visiting Mountain West team. Ask San Diego State who took a colossal size thumping (70-7) to the Lobos two weeks ago.
Winner:  Utah

11 Boise State (-20.5) at New Mexico State«««
These teams can put up huge points. This will be a back and forth game all the way through. The Boise State Broncos still have BCS aspirations, as they look to run the table and crash the BCS. This is a fun game to watch, but it's one of those games where you will see the footage on Sportscenter and it looks like it has been shot with the same camera that Abraham Zapruder used to capture the JFK assassination. If you can see through the scratchy and grainy film, you will see a heck of an offensive explosion.
Winner: Boise State

12 Ohio State - Idle

13 TCU (-14.5) at UNLV  «««
This might be the only chance during the entire year I have to make a cheap Las Vegas joke. Look for the TCU Horned Frogs to come out rolling the dice early with some trick plays to catch the Rebels on their heels. But the Rebels have an ace up their sleeve with QB Omar Clayton, who always comes up with Royal plays when he's flushed out of the pocket. Was that write up overkill? If so, remember what happens in Vegas, could be happening to you!
Winner: UNLV

14 Missouri (-20.5) at Baylor ««««
If there's one team outside the top 10 that should be in, it's Missouri. Baylor has been covering spreads but when it comes to the big games (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State), they have been falling flat. The Bears fall flat again.
Winner:  Missouri

15 Florida State (+2.5) at Georgia Tech ««««
You have to give credit to Dan Radakovitch, the Georgia Tech AD, for taking a chance on bringing the Triple Option offense to Atlanta. Yellow Jacket QB Josh Nesbitt has as many options when he drops back as Don Rickles at an Atlantic City buffet. Look for Georgia Tech to go back for seconds as they use misdirection to their advantage to beat the Seminoles.
Winner: Georgia Tech

16 Ball State - Idle

17 Minnesota (-7.5) vs. Northwestern  «««
Neither of these teams are dependable whatsoever. Much like an overweight office worker who keeps Oreo Double Stuffed hidden in his desk, I am secretly excited for this matchup of great offenses. Those are tough to come by in the Big 10.
Winner: Minnesota

18 Tulsa - Idle

19 LSU (-25.) vs. Tulane ««
The yearly Bayou bash in Louisiana is always a great event for the state. This is a game where you throw out the records... well, not really. LSU has just too many athletes on both sides of the ball for this to be close. At least there should be some great tailgate cuisine in New Orleans.
Winner: LSU

20 BYU (-14.5) at Colorado State ««
The average age of the BYU Cougars team might be older than the Oakland Raiders. No joke.  CSU is another team like UNLV that loves to cover the spread but not get the win in the big games. Will the BYU offense get back on track? It will be a surprisingly tight one in Fort Collins.
Winner: BYU

21 Michigan State (-4.5) vs. Wisconsin «««
With senior Travis Beckum out for the season the Wisconsin season is all but shot. The last time I saw a team take this much of a nosedive, Charlie Weis was coaching Notre Dame. Oh he still is? Yikes. Look for Michigan State to keep running through the weak Big 10.
Winner: Michigan State

22 North Carolina - Idle

23 South Florida (-2.5) at Cincinnati ««««
You don't go into Nippert Stadium on a Thursday Night and come out with a win. Look for a "black out," as this will be a tough defensive battle between two teams with speed all over the field. Bet against the road favorite: Cincinnati is the play in this one.
Winner: Cincinnati

24 Oregon (+3) at California «««

This is one of the best games of the day. These are two well-coached teams that love to put up points. Anytime the second best team in the Pac 10 is underdogs in a conference game, I am going to back them. Look for a tight one in Berkeley.
Winner: Oregon

25 Connecticut (+4) vs. West Virginia «««
If this season has taught me anything, the Mountaineers are going to look flat in this game. Fortunately for them, Connecticut is probably the worst 6-2 team in college football. This is a showdown of two vastly overrated teams.
Winner: West Virginia