Blown Coverage: Week 6

By Andrew Hill
October 2, 2008

I had a horrible week of picks last week. I'm sure a lot of other people did also, but 50% is just garbage. But rather than dwell on the past, I'll share some thoughts about the games this week before getting to the picks.

-       Nick Saban is way ahead of schedule in Tuscaloosa.

-       ESPN and Fox have Virginia Tech projected into the BCS.

-       The Big 12 will have a team in the National Championship. Oklahoma and Missouri are the front-runners with Texas and Texas Tech also in the conversation.

-       There is a difference between the most talented team and the best team. USC might be loaded personnel-wise, but until they start taking weak conference games seriously (Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA), they will be wintering this year in Pasadena rather than Miami.

-       The feast is ruined for Mark Sanchez. It seems that if you are the quarterback at Southern Cal, you already start the season in Heisman contention, but it looks now that he has played his way out.

-       As said before, Penn State is the only college that does the "White out" correctly (See Illinois game Link).

-       Washington QB Jake Locker is out six to eight weeks with a broken thumb. Washington is now dead in the water and coach Ty Willingham is as good as gone.

-       Somebody has to win the ACC, I just have no idea who. I guess it looks like Tech in the Coastal and possibly Maryland sneaking in the Atlantic.

-       Al Groh is terrible and needs to go. The 31-3 Duke loss is just another concrete example of it. (On second thought, I personally enjoy UVA's mediocrity, so he should stay). Former Cav, Peter Lalich has been kicked off the team and will now transfer to Oregon State. How does it feel UVA to have be the worst in the ACC and have your future moving to the west coast?

«««««- Can't miss game of the week... Usually has BCS implications

««««-Either a tough rivalry game or interesting out of conference matchup

«««- Game contains either an exciting player(s) or a team with a power offense or defense

««-A small step up from a one star game, very tough to get excited about. Usually involves Pac-10 teams

«- About as entertaining as Billy Crystal or Big 10 Basketball. Watchable only for alumni or degenerate gamblers

Lines provided by sportsbooks.com

Last Week's Picks: 8-8 YTD: 77-20 (79.4%)

1 Oklahoma (-27) at Baylor ««

To quote HBO's The Wire:

Vinson: What are you going to do when you're sitting at the head of the table? Once you're there, you gotta hold it down.

Marlo: Sounds like one of them good problems.

Oklahoma finally gets its cracks at holding down the number one ranking. The teams before them have slipped up one way or another. Baylor won't pose a problem but No. 5 Texas next week sure does.

Winner: Oklahoma

2 Alabama (-16.5) vs. Kentucky «««

This game will test Alabama's legitimacy. Can the Tide win the games they are supposed to? Will they avoid a letdown in a game with a lot less hype after an emotional win last week?

Winner: Alabama

3 LSU - Idle

4 Missouri (-10.5) at Nebraska ««««

A point spread of 10.5 may seem low until you hear the stat that Missouri hasn't won in Lincoln in 30 years. Missouri is too good to keep that streak going.

Winner: Missouri

5 Texas (-14) at Colorado «««

Texas is one of the more overrated ranked teams in the country; it's spent its season blowing out bad teams at home while Colorado got big game experience playing West Virginia and at Florida State. Somewhere around 15 is looking like a more accurate ranking for UT. The Buffs get the upset at night on Folsom Field.

Winner: Colorado

6 Penn State (-13) at Purdue ««««

Penn State looked really good against Illinois. Purdue's offense, led by Curtis Painter, should be able to keep up with State, but ultimately, the defense won't be enough to get the win.

Winner:  Penn State

7 Texas Tech (-7.5) at Kansas State««««

This will be an extremely close game for the Raiders. Kansas State has the offense to challenge and Tech sometimes starts out sluggish on the road.

Winner: Texas Tech

8 BYU (-28.5) at Utah State «

A 1-3 Utah State team won't be able to keep up with now-Heisman competitor Max Hall. BYU has a big game in two weeks at TCU.

Winner: BYU

9 USC (-16.5) vs. 23 Oregon «««««

The Trojans are bitter after losing again to Oregon State. The players are tired of hearing how they were looking ahead and will get the win at home.

Winner: USC

10 South Florida (-13.5) vs. Pittsburgh «««

Primetime game for South Florida. Pittsburgh will try to live up to all the preseason hype but will fall short as USF is the leading team to win the Big East.

Winner: South Florida

11 Georgia - Idle

12 Florida (-25) at Arkansas ««

Arkansas has been whipped by Texas and Alabama. They are two games into a five-game stretch of ranked teams with Florida and Auburn left to play.

Winner: Florida

13 Auburn (-4.5) at 19 Vanderbilt  ««««

Auburn has been sneaking past teams, winning the last three games by a total of eight points. This trend ends this week as Auburn has to tangle with a ranked Vanderbilt team looking to prove it belongs.

Winner: Vanderbilt

14 Ohio State (-1.5) at 18 Wisconsin  «««««

Both teams are coming into this game with recent bad losses, except Wisconsin has won its last 27 of 28 at home. Ohio State has been reinvigorated since dropping Todd Boeckman in favor of the much more dynamic Terrelle Pryor. State gets the win in game where points will be at a premium.

Winner:  Ohio State

15 Utah (-11.5) vs. Oregon State «««

Oregon State got one of the biggest wins of the season so far but they don't have enough to come back with a win against another ranked team, this time on the road.

Winner: Utah

16 Kansas (-13) at Iowa State ««

Kansas' passing game is in rhythm while the running game has been struggling as of late. This flaw will make this game closer than it should be.

Winner: Kansas

17 Boise State (-24) vs. Louisiana Tech ««

Boise is playing for another BCS bid and Louisiana Tech won't be able to slow them down.

Winner: Boise State

20 Virginia Tech (-27.5) vs. Western Kentucky««

The win against Nebraska went a long way to bringing respect back to the ACC. Tech gets the win this week but 27.5 points seems a little too high to cover.

Winner: Virginia Tech

21 Oklahoma State (-25) vs. Texas A&M  «««

The Cowboys' stock is on the rise while A&M is starting to tank.

Winner: Oklahoma State

22 Fresno State (-22.5) vs. Hawaii ««

I have a personal rule that I never back Hawaii on the mainland.

Winner: Fresno State

24 Connecticut (+7) at North Carolina «««

Both teams have lost their starting quarterbacks to injuries but UNC looked too good against Miami to lose to an overhyped Big East team.

Winner: North Carolina

25 Wake Forest - Idle