Commentary: Hokie Hoops Could Enjoy Different Ending This Year

In sports, there is a classic saying that goes, "the next game is always the most important."  More times than not it's considered nothing more than simply coachspeak, but for Virginia Tech, such a statement could not be any more true. 

After beating up on Miami in their first game of the ACC Tournament, the Hokies are slated to play the North Carolina Tar Heels in the quarterfinals.  The Hokies, who are currently considered a bubble team for the NCAA Tournament, could really help their cause with a win over the Heels.

If all of this so far gives you a feeling of familiarity, it should.

Just one season ago, the Hokies found themselves in a similar situation; they picked up a lopsided win against Miami, got a chance to play UNC in the ACC Tournament for what would almost be a sure berth in the NCAA's.  Well, needless to say, things didn't quite workout.  Thanks, Tyler Hansbrough.

If your initial reaction was anything like mine, then no part of this scenario seems like something worth reliving. 

But for the sake of optimism, lets take a look at why this year might just be different:

1)  Ty Lawson's injury status- Point guard play is without a doubt one of the most important factors in college basketball.  Ty Lawson is probably the best.  Some speculation is that he won't even suit up when his squad takes the floor against the Hokies on Friday because of a bum toe.  Even if he does play, there is clearly enough going on to expect him to be in less than prime condition for the game.  In other words, making Ty Lawson slow down is like taking the hands away from a brain surgeon.  He may still know how to save your life, but he may not be able to.  In the words of your very own Seth Greenberg just today:

"North Carolina is the best transition team in America.  They push it at you in warp speed and they've got guys at the end that can make plays.  They are as dangerous on a made shot as they are on a missed shot."

Needless to say, Lawson's presence on the court could be a determinant as to whether the Hokies have a legitimate shot at beating the Tar Heels. 

2) The Hokies role players are starting to hit their stride- As the year has progressed, one thing has become abundantly obvious.  If each of the Hokies' trademark "Big 3" (Vassallo, Delaney, Allen) are firing on all cylinders, it usually leads to a Hokie win.  If two of them are hitting, then it's probably a toss up.  If only one of the trio is on fire...well, see UVa and Maryland road games this season for your result. 

Then in Thursday's game against Miami we saw a new development.  None of the three cracked 20 points and Jeff Allen never even reached double digits.  We saw more balance.  For example, J.T. Thompson went a perfect five-for-five in the game and had 12 points.  Dorenzo Hudson chipped in seven points of his own, as well as played lock down defense on Jack McClinton.  These are two guys that the Hokies have sorely needed production from all season, and quite frankly, neither have consistently provided it the way Greenberg might have hoped.  The reason behind their lack of consistency could be one of many things, and that's a different argument altogether.  The point is that these guys might just be hitting their stride when they need to, especially Hudson.  To use the words of Greenberg yet again,

On Hudson:

"To see Dorenzo Hudson step into that jumper and knock that down not only gave us a lead, but it gave him confidence and that transfers to the defensive end."

On Thompson:

"He was the energizer bunny today.  The tip-in dunk, the 50-50 balls, running the court, the toughness.  He gave us great toughness today.  He was flying around.  The three keys to the today were we did a very good job on McClinton, we knew they were going to open zone and we were extremely poised against the zone early on and J.T. gave us an energy off the bench that was special."

There is obviously no telling whether they will continue to be hot, but progress certainly was made. There is no doubt that this is a different Hokie team when the role players are making contributions. 

3) This team was a preseason pick to make the NCAA Tournament - I'm of the opinion that mindset is half the battle in any situation.  Last year was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Hokies, while this year they expected success.  In other words, when the Hokies found themselves in a position to possibly get a tournament bid last year, it was like playing with house money.  This season, the Hokies find themselves in as identical of a situation as you can possibly get, only this time they need the win in order to do what they were supposed to do from the very start. People always have a greater sense of urgency when it comes down to a matter of meeting expectations.  Overachieving is great, but failing in such a situation is much easier to deal with. 

If you don't buy that argument 100 percent, then lets dissect it from a slightly different angle.  In this circumstance, we can even analyze without factoring the North Carolina game, though it would go an incredibly long way.  The mindset of the tournament committee is just as important, if not more important, than the actual team's mindset.  Last season, the Hokies had a couple things working against them in the eyes of the committee.  One, they were a surprise team, so the committee didn't even have them on the radar until late in the season.  Two, the   mid-major ranks were much stronger last year and took away some very valuable bids from some major conference teams that were on the bubble (aka: Virginia Tech).  This season, the overall strength of these mid-majors is way down and there have been several upsets in their respective conference tournaments, meaning some schools that were expected to go may fall short (see Davidson).  Three, the Hokies had no big wins.  They may have won a similar amount of games, but never took advantage of any big upset opportunities.  This season, the Hokies have road wins against previously top-ranked Wake Forest, as well as road victories against Miami and a top-25 Clemson team.  Add into the equation that it took an act of God to prevent an upset over another top-25 team in Xavier.  Don't think the committee won't look at that differently than last year's resume.  

Whether the Hokies beat the Heels on Friday is yet to be seen, but there is at least reason to believe that this team has more going in their favor than last year's squad.  Then again, last year earned the title of being "certifiably insane" from coach Greenberg, so who knows what will go down even if the Hokies beat the Heels.  No matter what unfolds, all Hokie fans do is just hope this year's familiar script has a much happier ending than the one from a year ago.  Then again, Greenberg might consider taking matters into his own hands and make a call to Tonya Harding.  What room is Tyler Hansbrough staying in again?