Hokies BCS Hopes Not Quite Dead
by Brian BartleyNovember 26, 2009
It's the time of year where fans begin to get out their pitchforks and light their torches in preparation for the annual verbal lashing of the BCS system.
Don't look for Hokie fans to be speaking up anytime soon, however. As the season comes to a close, it appears Virginia Tech is squarely in the running for an at-large BCS bid, rendering them as a team everyone's shaking those metaphorical pitchforks at.
Getting to a BCS bowl would be a great result for a 3-loss Hokie squad, but it's far from a done deal.
In order to be eligible for an at-large BCS bid, a team must finish 14th or higher in the final BCS standings.
The Hokies are currently 14th.
Essentially, a win over the Wahoos guarantees eligibility for Tech, but that alone won't clinch a birth.
Here is an overview of where things stand currently:
#1-Florida (11-0): FSU this week / Alabama in SEC title game next week
#2-Alabama (11-0): Auburn this week / Florida in SEC title next week
#3-Texas (11-0): playing TX A&M this week / Nebraska in Big 12 title in two weeks
#4-TCU (11-0): play New Mexico this week
#5 Cincinnati (10-0): play Illinois this week / Pitt next week
#6 Boise State (11-0): play Nevada this week / New Mexico state in two weeks
#7 Georgia Tech (10-1): Georgia this week / Clemson in ACC Title next week
#8 Oregon (9-2): Oregon State this week
#9 Pittsburgh (9-1): WVU this week / Cincinnati next week
#10 Ohio State (10-2): done
#11 Iowa (10-2): done
#12 Oklahoma State (9-2): Oklahoma this week
#13 Penn State (10-2) done
#14 Virginia Tech (8-3): UVA this week
#15 LSU (8-3): Arkansas this week
So where does that leave the Hokies?
Of the available 10 spots in the BCS, conference champions fill six of them, while the other four are filled by at-large bids.
Since the Hokies can't win the ACC, they'll essentially be competing against eight other teams (#14 or better to be eligible) for those four at-large spots.
The loser of the Florida/Alabama game will be given a BCS Bowl, so that leaves three available at-large spots.
TCU, though not a member of a BCS conference, has played the role of "small team with a big chance" very well and should be guaranteed an at-large. We're down to two spots.
The teams that are vying for those final two spots are Boise State, Virginia Tech, Pitt, Iowa, Penn State, and LSU.
Iowa is likely the first to be dropped off the list of possible candidates due to their unimpressive wins and unexciting style of play. Throw into the equation the Hawkeyes had an embarrassing loss to Northwestern, and the BCS has all the reasons they need not to invite Iowa.
Penn State is pretty much in the same boat as Iowa, but with slightly better odds. The only two losses by Penn State have been to the Hawkeyes and Ohio State. These are certainly "quality losses," but where are the quality wins? No top-25 wins for Penn State equals no BCS Bowl--mark them of the list.
That leaves four teams--Boise State, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, and LSU--all competing for two at-large spots.
Boise State has proven that they can perform on the big stage in the past, but is this year's team really that good? Even if they are, will the BCS take them and TCU?
Pittsburgh would be a lock if the season ended today. Unfortunately, the Panthers have two possible losses ahead of them against West Virginia and Cincinnati. The backyard brawl is in Morgantown this year and Cincinnati seems unstoppable in the Big East. Pittsburgh will lose at least one, if not both, of their remaining two games.
With three losses, the Hokies and LSU share the worst records among teams still eligible for the BCS.
The Hokies three losses are probably the most impressive three losses in the nation. In Alabama and Georgia Tech, you have two teams that are in the top-10 and will likely be in BCS bowls. The Hokies other loss came to North Carolina, who is currently ranked 24th. These three teams have a combined record of 32-4 this season.
Unlike Penn State, the Hokies have several quality wins to stand in support of their tough quality losses. Consecutive home wins against Nebraska and Miami at home early in the season go a long way on the Hokies resume. Nebraska was a top-20 team when the Hokies beat them and will be playing Texas for the Big XII title in two weeks, while the Hurricanes are currently ranked 17th (9th when VT played). In addition, the Hokies had the #2 rated schedule in the nation this year.
LSU has an identical record to the Hokies, but lack the quality wins. The Tigers have lost to every ranked opponent they have faced with the exception of Georgia, who was ranked 18th at the time, but is no longer in the top-25.
Another thing working against LSU is their 107th ranked offense. Television viewers historically like to see a lot of points, and that's something the Tigers have proven they can't provide on a consistent basis this season. Just like Iowa, the less you've seen of LSU this year, the better you probably feel about them.
At the end of the day, it's the BCS suits that will hold the Hokies fate as this bowl season approaches. With just the right series of wins and losses for certain teams in the final two weeks of the season combined with the Hokies fairly impressive resume, it's not illogical for Tech fans to sill have hope for a BCS Bowl.
Then again, its just as likely that all the right things could happen and the Hokies still find themselves on the outside looking in.
Geez, has anyone ever mentioned a playoff???
Comments (5)
Did you do any fact checking? There are six automatic bids, not five (B10, B12, BEast, Pac10, SEC, ACC). That leaves 4 at large spots. Assuming TCU wins out, they are guaranteed a spot. If TCU loses, Boise State will take that spot. That leaves 3 spots. The Florida/Alabama loser will get one of those.
That leaves two spots. Penn State is a VERY attractive choice for a BCS bowl. They have a large fanbase, will travel well, and will bring in large TV audiences. The BCS bowls are different than other bowls in that they care more about TV ratings than bowl attendance.
And somehow, shockingly, you left Oklahoma State off your list of possible choices. If the season ended right now, I'd bet Penn State and Ok. State take these two spots.
Quality wins are less important in the selection process. VT has been known to lay an absolute egg against big names during primetime games. The country is bored by our style of football (run first, pass horribly second).
For VT to get a BCS bowl, we need Oklahoma to beat Ok. State. That will improve our chances. Also, if Clemson beats GT in the ACCCG, the Orange Bowl has mentioned a possible matchup between Clemson and VT in the Orange Bowl.
And how is Pittsburgh a lock? You offer no argument to that statement. Pittsburgh is in the Big East, and the Big East will have a VERY hard time getting two BCS bowls.
Max | November 26, 2009 1:31 PMbbbbbbllllllllaaaaasssssssssssstttttttttttttttttt
vinny | November 26, 2009 8:07 PMPlayoffs?! Don't talk about playoffs! Are you kidding me? Playoffs?
Paul | November 26, 2009 8:16 PMFirst...good spot on the Auto Bid. I read from an article online that said it was 5 and 5...thanks for spotting that.
Now for some good conversation.... I was basing this article off the assumption of several key wins that I think we need, but are also very probable ( I tried to make my assumptions clear, but I must not have). There is no really good way to discuss this topic without making a few assumptions...thats the beauty of speculating and hypotheticals.
To that note, OU beating Ok St. I feel is a very likely option. If I recall the game is in Norman and OU should be the stronger team on paper. Losing Bradford caused them to stumble from Title hopes, but I still think they'll take care of business against little brother in the state.
As we both already stated, the SEC loser gets the first bid no doubt. That now means we are likely in a crapshoot against PSU for that final spot. PSU has no top-25 wins and the Big Ten has been getting ragged on by national media all year year. On the flip side of that, the Hokies have the #2 schedule with wins against Nebraska and Miami and the ACC has 4 teams in the top-25. Clearly at this point in the season, the ACC has a much more favorable connotation attached to it (this season).
Typically I would agree with you that PSU would get better treatment, but considering the bodies of work...well, I don't see how you take them. Our 3-losses will be looked at like 1 or 2 losses by the committee if we stay eligible. I say this because pollsters have already proven thats how they're looking at it by putting 2-loss teams behind us and making us the highest rated 3-loss (and I truly haven't even heard anyone even complain about that, so it must be seen as a just ranking for the most part).
I picked Pitt mainly to be audacious. When I was under the idea that there were 5 at-large bids, I wanted to show even an unlikely scenario that would get us in. Now that you've corrected me, we certainly can't have that.
I think there is enough of a consensus nationwide (proven through our rankings) that Virginia Tech has had a great season, just had an ungodly schedule. How many other top-15 teams have SOS in the top-5?? How many ever do for that matter in any season? The only loss I ever hear the national media speak of was the UNC game...aka nobody is holding the other two against us (especially if somehow both won out and we had to top-5 losses...WOW!
here's where I'm really going to disagree with you...In my mind, we must have GT win out to make it a decent possibility. As much as they want to bat around the idea...you're not going to see an all-ACC Orange Bowl. It's too risky and it has good chance of turning non-ACC fans off that game altogether. For us to get to a BCS, I'm gonna go at-large in the Fiesta and thats really the only viable option I believe in.
The Hokies are truly an atypical team this season, and the BCS may or may not see it that way. As I said, how many seasons can we look back and see a top-15 team and in the same breath talk about how tough their schedule was (#2)...its usually quite the opposite. On top of that, consider the fact we could have lost to two top-5 teams (if GT wins)?? Unheard of...and if it has happened, I guarantee it was in the SEC and I bet whichever team it was got into the BCS as an at-large...interesting stat I'll try to look up.
My point is that the chance is legitimate...computers will be kind, and our "quality losses" (as bad as that sounds) might acutally be seen as better than PSU lack of even one quality win. Even if its not...at least we still have a couple quality wins that compare to their none. Either way we are golden when seasons are compared by the committee. PSU may have a negligible, marginal at best, advantage when it comes to television and crowds...our lackluster crowds in Miami have to deal more with repetition and not actual traveling expectations...look no further than our traveling on any general basis...there's a reason we play almost annually in venues like the GA Dome and FED-EX...we travel well and we get decent ratings. I think the BCS committee has done enough research to where they can extrapolate our refusal to travel to Florida 4 times in the last 2 years (and thats just post-season play...not to mention Miami and Fla State). I honestly believe, if it comes down to this in the end, we beat out PSU for that spot.
Thanks for the feedback though, and thanks for catching that mistake...I'll check multiple sources next time and make sure I get it right.
Brian B. | November 26, 2009 8:17 PMEssentially, whether its the Orange Bowl Committee or the Fiesta Bowl committee. I'm convinced we'll have an edge of Penn State THIS season.
Brian B. | November 27, 2009 12:45 PMPost a comment