Academy Award Predictions

by Justin Velasquez
March 6, 2010

Awards season has come upon the film world again and on Sunday that season will conclude with the granddaddy of them all - The Academy Awards.  Last year was the first time I officially made Oscar predictions, and despite the notion that I believe I have decent cinematic knowledge I made only three correct predictions out of the six major categories.  For 2009 there were some exceptional, though not extraordinary films, but it doesn't mean that the season was any less memorable.  Nonetheless it seems the favorites to win this year are a bit more definite.  Let's break down the major categories again so you'll have an idea of what to expect come Sunday evening...

Best Actress in a Supporting Role - Penelope Cruz, Nine; Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

This is a very interesting category and every female here is deserving of a nomination. 

Penelope Cruz follows up her Oscar win for Vicky Cristina Barcelona with another stellar performance - this time as a singing mistress.  This is a memorable performance that's more a testament to her crossover success, since many critics pegged her as less talented when playing English-speaking roles.  Successfully combining her stunning sexuality with her budding talent, this isn't quite an award-winning performance, but more of a big middle finger towards her critics out there. 

Vera Farmiga has shown that she can hang with the big boys - her breakthrough coming in 2006's The Departed co-starring opposite Jack Nicholson, Leonardo DiCaprio and Matt Damon.  In Up in the Air she is smart, sassy and very much George Clooney's equal in a picture that is a showcase of great performances.  She's not likely to win, though, just because the film seems to have lost momentum and she may split votes with Anna Kendrick, her co-star. 

Maggie Gyllenhaal has always been an actor's actor and this performance is no different.  She is almost perfect as Jean Craddock and her fascination-turned-affection for Jeff Bridges' washed up country crooner is very believable, almost serene.  It will be tough for her to win because many have branded the film as so-so. 

Kendrick is the young upstart who, thanks to this role, is already a leg up on her Twilight co-stars.  Her role is memorable because of the stark contrast her Natalie Keener is to Clooney's Ryan Bingham.  But she's the young rookie and will have to take her lumps from the veterans.  

The actress, though, who has set herself apart from the rest of the group is Mo'Nique.  Known mostly as a comedienne, Mo'Nique put forth a performance that is altogether appalling, moving and crushing.  She is incredible and is my choice to win.

My Prediction: Mo'Nique in a landslide.

Best Actor in a Supporting Role - Matt Damon, Invictus; Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

On paper this looks to be a great category with plenty of tough competition.  But if you've seen these performances there is only one who should and will win - Christoph Waltz.  I'll get back to why later.

Matt Damon, surprisingly, hasn't won a golden statue, even though he's one of Hollywood's biggest stars.  He saved The Informant! from utter failure and in Invictus he helps elevate a great performance from Morgan Freeman.  Damon is strong here, just not strong enough to win. 

Christopher Plummer is pretty much great in any role he takes on and if his performance here isn't enough to sway you then check him out in Star Trek VI: The Undiscovered Country or, more recently, Syriana.  The Last Station was little seen, though, and he won't win because of that. 

Stanley Tucci is the glue for any film.  Plug him into any role and he can magically mesh with anyone onscreen, thus making others' performances better (Big Night, The Devil Wears Prada, The Terminal).  Somehow he's never won an Oscar and unfortunately he won't win here, either.

In any other year Woody Harrelson would win for this role.  In The Messenger he plays the role of broken and alone perfectly and it's proof that he is a great, talented actor.  He is the darkhorse, here, and personally I'm rooting for him.  If he doesn't win I guess he can blame the Nazi's, or as Brad Pitt's Aldo Raine would say, "Nat-seees." 

Waltz, as Col. Hans Landa, is undoubtedly the winner.  He's witty, funny, menacing and, most importantly, convincing in role that Quentin Tarantino has stated is, "the best character I've ever written."  To write a prefect role is one thing, to be able to transform those words into actions is another thing entirely, and we have Waltz to thank for that.

My Prediction: Waltz... as much a certainty as Heath Ledger was last year.

Best Actress in a Leading Role - Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Helen Mirren, The Last Station; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

This is one of the tougher categories in spite of the fact that Streep's in it... again.  With this nomination that's sweet sixteen for her as she seamlessly tackles the real-life Julia Child.  She's incredible and it would be great to see her win her third statue.  But can she do it with a performance in a comedy? 

Helen Mirren is another member of acting royalty since she won an Oscar for her performance in 2006's The Queen.  She was exceptional in The Last Station but hasn't gotten too much love for this role.  I don't think the Academy will see it any differently here. 

Carey Mulligan is the newcomer who will most likely breakout into film stardom because of this role.  She's already collected a lot of hardware since the film's release, so she just may be able to bring home the statue. 

Gabourey Sidibe easily comes in with the toughest role, having played a pregnant teen with major issues at home and at school.  She's won a few awards for this role, too, so she's just as much a player here as anyone. 

The sentimental favorite, and possibly the overwhelming favorite, is Sandra Bullock.  A longtime superstar, she's never gotten any Academy love, but this is the role that might change her fortunes.  The Blind Side has certainly resonated with the Academy - a blockbuster with a feel-good ending and memorable, inspiring performances all around.  Bullock's performance was hands down the highlight of the film and because of that she may be the one to beat. 

This is a tough category.

My Prediction: Sandra Bullock, in a squeaker over Carey Mulligan.

Best Actor in a Leading Role - Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges is the man.  In Crazy Heart he's the man - he is the reason to see the film and he is every bit as impressive here as the day he first stepped in front of a camera.  Bridges, who has been acting across six decades, has NEVER won an Oscar.  This is might be it. 

Right before Christmas, Clooney was white-hot.  Everyone was swooning over Up in the Air and his remarkable role in it.  But something happened... Bridges happened.

Colin Firth has been a steady actor for years now, but apart of the cinephiles out there he's in the "oh yeah, that guy," category.  Firth, as strong as he was here, simply cannot win.

Many people will tell you that Morgan Freeman was born to play Nelson Mandela but I like to spin it like this - Mandela was born so that Freeman could play him on screen.  Freeman as Mandela would normally be Oscar gold but as great as he was in Invictus, the film overall isn't compelling enough for him to take it.

Jeremy Renner has come a long way from playing a cheesy bad guy in 2003's S.W.A.T.  Renner's performance in The Hurt Locker is a star-making one and already he is preparing for his (rumored) role as Hawkeye in 2012's The Avengers.  He can thank his flawless performance here.  By the way, he's the dark horse.

I wish I could tell you that this category will be as close at the Best Actress category but simply put, it's a one-man race.  This is Jeff Bridges' Oscar to lose, and that's saying something considering the company he's in.  The Academy will be doing the acting world a disservice by NOT awarding it to him because he's that good.  Bridges has been great his entire career and this will be his exclamation point.

My Prediction: isn't it obvious? 

Best Achievement in Directing - James Cameron, Avatar; Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds; Lee Daniels, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

I hate picking the director category because in my opinion great directing should be indicative of the year's best film.  It's tough to judge this category because what makes a good director?  Is it huge box office, or maybe likeability with the talent (the actors)?  Or maybe it's holding true to a sceenwriter's/author's vision?  It's probably a combination of those factors but even taking those into consideration it doesn't mean one director is better than the other.  Let's leave it at this - Kathryn Bigelow, with The Hurt Locker, directed such a visceral film that I believe she should win.  I also believe she should win because I believe The Hurt Locker is the year's best film.  That's how I feel best director should be chosen - the winner for Best Picture should automatically merit the year's best director as well (but that's just my opinion).  But there's a case to be made for the other directors.

James Cameron - the self-proclaimed "King of the World" delivered on his promise to change the game with Avatar.  Avatar has already revolutionized how films are made and seen.  But is it this film that good story-wise that he should be best director?  Some say yes... I'm on the fence.

Quentin Tarantino - the consummate screenwriter/director offers up his most "mature" film and in the process has shown that he's an even better director than the same Q.T. who wrote and directed Pulp Fiction.  Maybe he should win... Well, he'll win for Writing in the Original Screenplay category.

Lee Daniels - in only his second feature he should be applauded for tackling a project with such tough subject matter.  Also, to elicit such great performances from the film's principal actors is another accomplishment, especially since the star, Gabourey Sidibe, had no prior acting credits.

Jason Reitman - a legacy in the directing field (daddy Ivan directed Animal House, Ghostbusters and Stripes), Jason decided to go the serious route with his directing style.  He's still able to keep a keen sense of humor, though, in all his projects; witness to both Juno and Up in the Air.  What's impressive here - two features, both nominated for best picture.  How's that for directing?

My Prediction: Bigelow, in a win that would make her the first female Best Director recipient.  It will be a close one, though, between her and ex-husband James Cameron.

Best Picture - Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

The Academy expanded this category after the uproar over 2008's The Dark Knight was snubbed.  Director Christopher Nolan's epic what praised for directing what was essentially an art piece that incorporated necessary action with great character development, outstanding acting performances and an incredible story.  Its absence from the running last year took away from those competing so the Academy made this change.

It'll be tough to break down all ten of these films so I will try to write about the ones that are the most relevant and have the best chance to win - which leaves just two.

Right now many will tell you that Avatar is the favorite to win.  It's been highly praised by critics and is the all-time box office champ.  It's tough to deny these facts, but questions abound about whether or not it's the best film out there.  Avatar, for some, reeks of familiarity since its storyline reflects past movies like Dances With Wolves, The Last of the Mohicans and The Last Samurai.  But what it may lack in originality it more than makes up for it in visual quality - and visually this is possibly cinema's greatest achievement to date.  Is this enough, though, to win Best Picture?

The Hurt Locker built itself around a strong story and cultural familiarity.  It's a war pic told during a time where war is the norm, but instead of glorifying war is does quite the opposite.  War implies action but outside of a few essential fight scenes it draws intensity its from the characters, the story and the dialogue.  The Hurt Locker is the David to Avatar's Goliath.; polar opposites in almost every way.  Locker made a little over $12.6 million during its domestic run, Avatar made $77 million - in its first weekend.  Locker is story-based and character driven, Avatar is concept-based and action driven.  The Hurt Locker, though, may be the more impressive film because so much was accomplished with so little.

My Prediction: Avatar, mainly because I don't see it getting shut out of both Best Film AND Best Director.